Screening of potential sites for undeclared nuclear facilities in environmental monitoring for nuclear proliferation

The sensitivity of environmental sampling and analysis for the estimated atmospheric concentrations of radionuclides in effluents from clandestine nuclear facilities may require many sampling sites and exorbitant costs to monitor such large areas. An assessment has been made of the key factors necessary to support the operation of a nuclear facility, e.g., the existence of a nearby transportation network, main electrical power supply, and population centers. Screening, the subject of this paper, evaluates how cartographic data and satellite imagery can be used to identify areas most capable of supporting undeclared nuclear operations. As a result, large geographical areas can be eliminated from environmental monitoring and sampling. This leads to reduced costs, a reduction in the number of sampling sites required, and a reduction in the overall level effort required accomplish effective environmental monitoring. The screening methodology and techniques are described and examples given. (author)