Evaluation of follow up of vesicoureteral reflux into pylon - grade II (VUR II)

Aim: Our previous work determined that the disappearance rate of VUR II. But the probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on first follow up study at time 0 in reflux unit (RU) with previously detected VUR II was only 47%. In this study we want to find out if the disappearance rate of VUR II is the same also for RU in which VUR II was not seen on first follow up study. Material and methods: In 61 RU (in 42 children younger than 12 years) with VUR II at the time of initial cyclic radionucline cystography (CRC) the second follow up CRC was repeated in average after 810 days. On first follow up CRC performed in average 421 days after the initial study reflux was not detected. Sequences of 5 sec. images from the beginning until the completion of the study was used for initial, first and second follow up report. Results: VUR II or VUR III was detected in 8 of 61 studied RU. The probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on second follow up, if reflux was not seen on the first follow up, was: 8/61 = 13%. If the first follow up was done 421 days after initial study the probability for negative result was 67%. The probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on second follow up if reflux was not detected on the first follow up study was: 13% * 0,67 9%. Probability calculated according to the proposed model to detect VUR II or VUR III on second follow up, if VUR was not detected on the first follow up was 25.Calculated probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on second follow up done at time 0, if reflux was not seen on first follow up was 25%. Conclusion: The probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on first follow up in RU with previously detected VUR II is 47%). The probability to detect VUR II or VUR III on second follow up in RU with previously detected VUR II if VUR was not seen on first follow up is 25%