Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work