Propagation of cross section uncertainties in combined Monte Carlo neutronics and burnup calculations

Some years ago a methodology was developed at NRG for the calculation of 'density-to-density' and 'one-group cross section-to-density' sensitivity matrices and covariance matrices for final nuclide densities for burnup schemes consisting of multiple sets of flux/spectrum and burnup calculations. The applicability of the methodology was then demonstrated by calculations of BR3 MOX pin irradiation experiments employing multi-group cross section uncertainty data from the EAF4 data library. A recent development is the extension of this methodology to enable its application in combination with the OCTOPUS-MCNP-FISPACT/ORIGEN Monte Carlo burnup scheme. This required some extensions to the sensitivity matrix calculation tool CASEMATE. The extended methodology was applied on the 'HTR Plutonium Cell Burnup Benchmark' to calculate the uncertainties (covariances) in the final densities, as far as these uncertainties are caused by uncertainties in cross sections. Up to 600 MWd/kg these uncertainties are larger than the differences between the code systems. However, it should be kept in mind that the calculated uncertainties are based on EAF4 uncertainty data. It is not exactly clear on beforehand what a proper set of associated (MCNP) cross sections and covariances would yield in terms of final uncertainties in calculated densities. This will be investigated, by the same formalism, once these data becomes available. It should be noted that the studies performed up till the present date are mainly concerned with the influence of uncertainties in cross sections. The influence of uncertainties in the decay constants, although included in the formalism, is not considered further. Also the influence of other uncertainties (such as -geometrical- modelling approximations) has been left out of consideration for the time being. (authors)