Dividing CO₂ emissions from energy by four: the Negatep 2017 scenario. Negatep 2017 financial analysis: reducing CO₂ emissions. Yes, but at what cost?

The Negatep scenario conforms to the objective set by the French energy law of 2005, namely a four-fold reduction in CO 2 emissions, a condition which roughly implies a four-fold reduction in the use of fossil fuels. This objective is also proposed by the European Community. Beyond the prerequisite of an improved energy efficiency, without which the four - fold reduction would be out of reach, it is necessary to replace fossil fuels with carbon free energies, for the generation of both heat and electricity. In order to reach a four-fold reduction in CO 2 emissions, the study shows that it is necessary to: - Decrease to nearly zero oil and gas in the residential and tertiary sectors; this can be achieved through improved insulation, renewable thermal energies combined or not with electric heat pumps, and a 'smart' use of direct electrical heating. The major problem here is financial, and this should lead to a systematic choice of the least costly solutions. - Reduce significantly the use of oil in the transport sector: this implies a revolution both in the management of mobility (mass transportation, freight) and the replacement of gasoline by electricity, either directly with electric motorizations (electric cars and rechargeable hybrids) or indirectly by supplying energy to the biofuel synthesis process. - Reduce significantly the use of fossil fuels in industry; this requires changes in industrial processes and major capital investments. - Increase massively the share of electricity in the energy mix, maintain the share of nuclear in the electricity generation and, as long as the storage of electricity is not developed, limit the share of intermittent energies to a level compatible with the present level of gas turbines. Implementation of such a program must rest upon a realistic evaluation of the cost per avoided ton of Greenhouse gases in its 2011 edition, the Negatep scenario has been the main support of the DEC path presented in the conclusions of the French national debate on the energy transition