Cost Probability Analysis of China's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transition

The Chinese government has already determined to develop the closed nuclear fuel cycle, its long-term roadmap of spent fuel management has not been decided yet. Currently, it seems that China's booming economy gives abundant financial assurance to develop nuclear programs in full play according to its near-term national plans. However, the viability and sustainability of nuclear power always depends critically on its economics. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a well focused cost-benefit and objective analysis of China's ongoing nuclear power programs with the future prospects. In this study, we conduct a comparative analysis of electricity generation cost in four reference nuclear fuel cycle transition scenarios by 2050. Direct disposal is assumed to produce the cheapest LCT as low as 62.688 mills/kWh compared to the other options. However, after performing a relative uncertainty study, the results show that the capital cost of reactor is the key cost component which leads to the cost gap