Integrated system evaluation of nuclear fuel cycle options in China combined with an analytical MCDM framework

Highlights: • A decision making about future nuclear energy systems in a national energy strategy. • The first attempt to holistically evaluate the sustainability of China's nuclear fuel cycle options. • An entire MCDM framework based on a dynamic system modeling approach. • Highlight of the roles of the distinctive decision makers and their impacts. - Abstract: Our work is a first attempt to evaluate comprehensively the sustainability of future nuclear fuel cycle options in China based on dynamic system modeling combined with a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analysis. Considering six essential indicators, we developed an MCDM framework to evaluate and rank China-specific sustainability in line with the quantitative performance of four candidate options of fuel cycle transition scenarios from the existing to advanced nuclear energy systems through 2100. Four transition scenarios identified are 1) the direct disposal of PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) spent fuel, 2) the mono-recycling of PWR spent fuel through PWR-MOX (Mixed Oxides), 3) the PWR-MOX followed by Fast Reactor (FR), and 4) the full recycling of PWR spent fuel using FR. We also further analyzed the roles of the different representatives of decision makers and their impacts on the overall ranking by applying AHP, TOPSIS, and PROMETHEE II methods from a weighting perspective. The results showed that Scenario 1 is the least sustainable and attractive fuel cycle option. Instead, Scenario 4 substantially satisfies the requirements underlying the current definition of nuclear sustainability, while remaining in line with China's closed nuclear fuel cycle policy. This strategic MCDM framework also provides flexibility to cope with the evolution and inherent uncertainties of technological development, which is conducive to identifying the trade-offs of future nuclear energy systems considered at a national level.