Uncertainties in estimation of intakes of actinides for dose reconstruction cases

Intakes and doses arising from exposure to actinides must be reconstructed from historical bioassay data for the purposes of worker compensation and for epidemiology studies. The usual default assumption is that a series of urine activities is the result of a constant chronic intake. In reality, the urine activities will most likely arise from a random sequence of discrete intakes. In order to investigate the accuracy of the constant chronic assumption, we have created virtual urine datasets using Monte Carlo modelling and these were used as input to the code IMBA(1). Comparisons of estimated intakes with those used as input allow the uncertainties in the procedure to be estimated. The effects of incorrect assumptions about the scattering factors, activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) and solubility can also be examined. The results show that the constant chronic assumptions leads to remarkably reliable estimates of intake, even for datasets generated by just a few intakes per year. The estimate of intake is fairly robust against mis-assignment of scattering factor and AMAD. However, as is well-known, the correct assignment of solubility is crucial in obtaining reliable estimates of intake and dose. (authors)