Framing policy on low emissions vehicles in terms of economic gains: Might the most straightforward gain be delivered by supply chain activity to support refuelling?

Highlights: • The current UK supply of petrol and diesel is highly import-intensive. • It has the weakest economic 'multipliers' of all UK industries investigated. • UK electricity and gas industries have much stronger domestic multipliers. • A high share of economic value delivered therein is embedded in UK service sectors. • The sustainability of value-added embedded in oil and gas extraction is questioned. - Abstract: A core theme of the UK Government's new Industrial Strategy is exploiting opportunities for domestic supply chain development. This extends to a special 'Automotive Sector Deal' that focuses on the shift to low emissions vehicles (LEVs). Here attention is on electric vehicle and battery production and innovation. In this paper, we argue that a more straightforward gain in terms of framing policy around potential economic benefits may be made through supply chain activity to support refuelling of battery/hydrogen vehicles. We set this in the context of LEV refuelling supply chains potentially replicating the strength of domestic upstream linkages observed in the UK electricity and/or gas industries. We use input-output multiplier analysis to deconstruct and assess the structure of these supply chains relative to that of more import-intensive petrol and diesel supply. A crucial multiplier result is that for every £1million of spending on electricity (or gas), 8 full-time equivalent jobs are supported throughout the UK. This compares to less than 3 in the case of petrol/diesel supply. Moreover, the importance of service industries becomes apparent, with 67% of indirect and induced supply chain employment to support electricity generation being located in services industries. The comparable figure for GDP is 42%.