Chemical and isotopic seismic precursory signatures in deep groundwater: Cause and effect

Exploratory hydrochemical studies were initiated in Koyna, India, to examine the chemical changes in the deep groundwater due to seismic activity, 2 months before the occurrence of a M 5.1 earthquake on 14th March 2005. A few deep wells (100–250 m), out of a dozen, recorded hydrochemical anomalies induced by this earthquake, and the anomalies continued for the next 3 months. Periodical hydrochemical data of one of the wells indicated a linear increase in Cl−, SO42-, F− and depleted δ18O from August 2006 to March 2009, though there is no long term change in groundwater level (except short duration seasonal change). The observed linear change is hypothesised as an effect of aquifer response to seismic stress related to an impending earthquake of M ⩾ 5. The observed temporal change in different chemical concentrations projected linearly to the levels of March 2005 and estimated the time of the impending earthquake (the same as that of March 2005 event) as 2011/12. Further, the time projection also made based on exponential increase in hydrochemistry after 3/2009, advanced the possible time window to 2010/11. This hypothesis was realized on 12 December 2009 with an earthquake of M 5.1. Even the simple arithmetic mean of the 45-a earthquake (M > 5) history of Koyna indicates a recurrence time of ∼5.4 a. To account for the observed temporal hydrochemical changes, a model, based on mixing of two aquifer waters caused by seismic stress, was proposed. Hourly monitoring of electrical conductivity (EC) of groundwater also recorded conductivity changes induced by the M 5.1 earthquake on 12th December 2009. A very important observation that emerges from this study is that the cyclic change in subsurface stress leads to earthquakes. Continuous monitoring of EC may be helpful in visualizing the effect of tectonic forces on groundwater chemistry.