Energy transition to net zero. Do supply and demand for CO${}_2$ removal from the atmosphere match? Ariadne analysis

In the energy transition on the path to emissions neutrality, the main thing is to avoid CO${}_2$ emissions as much as possible - through a rapid switch to renewable energies, innovative climate-neutral production processes, etc. However, this alone is not enough to achieve a net zero in the emissions balance, because in some areas emissions cannot be avoided or can only be avoided with great difficulty, for example in certain industrial processes or in agriculture. In this analysis, in an extension of the Ariadne Scenario Report (Luderer et al., 2021), the multi-layered interrelationships between avoidance options and CO${}_2$ removal potentials are illuminated and scope for action is delineated. This analysis provides orientation points under which conditions greenhouse gas neutrality could be achieved locally in Germany. It is shown that only the utilisation of all available options, both in the avoidance of residual emissions and in the removal of CO${}_2$ from the atmosphere, opens up scope that safeguards against the high risk that not all ambitious assumptions in the scenarios will actually occur.