What-ifs for a Northern ozone hole

Based on papers presented at a recent American Geophysical Union meeting in Baltimore, this article discusses various processes that could lead to further significant stratospheric ozone losses over northern latitudes. In southern high latitudes, ClO, formed when Cl atoms react with O3, persists into the spring and enters a photocatalytic cycle that regenerates ozone-destroying Cl atoms. Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are believed to act as catalysts in this cycle. Although type II PSCs rarely form in the warmer Arctic stratosphere, it is possible that type I PSCs and sulfuric acid droplets may act as catalytic surfaces in this region. The arctic however, currently lacks a pronounced ozone hole, unlike Antartica. This is because in the Northern Hemisphere, large-scale tropospheric weather disturbances leak a portion of their energy to the less dense stratosphere. This indirectly leads to the descent of air over the Arctic region which produces compression heating of the polar cap and keeps the Arctic winter stratosphere warm enough to evade the cold temperatures that would produce widespread PSCs, and the associated significant ozone destruction. However, the greenhouse effect could lead to a cooler stratosphere containing more water and weaker tropospheric large-scale disturbances meaning colder Arctic winters. All these factors would contribute to greater PSC formation and the associated ozone destruction