Assessing antiquity and turnover of terrestrial ecosystems in eastern North America using fossil pollen data: A preliminary study

We explored formal approaches to identifying and interpreting the antiquity and turnover of terrestrial ecosystems in eastern North America using pollen records. Preliminary results of cluster analyses, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, and likelihood estimation of ecosystem analog in a simple Bayesian model allow assessment of modern ecosystem antiquities and past ecosystem turnovers. Approaches discussed in this study thus provide a vehicle for further studies.