International nuclear politics

The two-year International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE) will conclude in 1980 with an assessment of the need for nuclear power and the need for nonproliferation, but an international consensus seems unlikely in light of the present economic and military uncertainties. The conference was undertaken when concern over nuclear trade and US opposition to a plutonium economy indicated the need for a forum to defuse tensions and to justify the US position with technical and economic evidence. Only the first objective was achieved, however - the Evaluation's conclusions reflecting only basic international disagreements. While the risks are diplomatically reported and fully presented, the Evaluation is judged to be ambiguous and to have provided only temporary relief. Some risks and instabilities are outlined as well as two major opportunities in the convergence of opinion on a future nuclear fuel cycle and a prolonged nuclear depression, which combine to form a better climate for multilateral resolutions of the proliferation problem. A strategy is outlined for accomplishing this