World Energy Scenarios - 2019, European Regional Perspective

The scenarios provides an inclusive and strategic framework that enables big-picture thinking. They are designed to be used as a set to explore and navigate what might happen and support a better-quality global strategic dialogue on the future of energy systems. These regionally focused scenarios are is produced using a World Energy Council framework, that was developed by the Council and its scenarios partners, Accenture Strategy Energy and the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report is following a medium-term time horizon of 2040 and focuses on European region, which includes EU31, Eastern Europe and Russia. It explores three plausible pathways for a region in Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock futures, provides comparative analysis, and a broader view on 'how to use' the scenarios. The regionally focused scenarios were informed by insights from 15 deep-dive regionally focused leadership interviews, regional workshops in Paris, Berlin and Tallinn, and wide experts' engagements. The European region comprises over 30 national energy systems, including some of the world's largest importer-exporter nations. There is increasing diversity in the overall energy mix, which includes community/ district and industrial heating; centralised and decentralised electricity grids; hydrocarbon molecules; and renewable, hydro and nuclear power generation. Compared with other regions, the European region is also well endowed with both new and ageing national and cross-border energy infrastructures. Whilst the future of energy cannot be predicted with any degree of precision, managing successful energy transitions necessitates a bigger-picture perspective. The exploratory scenarios contained in this report describe three plausible alternative pathways for European regional energy systems. None of the scenarios is the preferred or most likely future. Instead, the set of scenarios can be used by energy leaders to engage constructively with uncertainty and to better prepare for emerging systemic risks and new opportunities. The three scenarios indicate the following as the main challenges facing European energy transition leaders: 1 - European energy systems are already approaching an investment cliff. 2 - New global growth opportunities are emerging in energy, whilst geostrategic competitions are intensifying. 3 - Digital energy competitiveness is key to a next era of regional prosperity. 4 - European shared values imply that there can be no energy transition without social involvement and public acceptance. 5 - New economics of whole system transition are needed that avoid increasing emotional reactions and establish a level playing field in the consideration of alternative net-zero carbon technologies transition pathways. 6 - Developing integrated energy-industrial strategies and promoting sector-coupling policies are pivotal in enabling affordable and deeper decarbonization, in parallel with creating jobs and strengthening regional economic competitiveness. 7 - There is a need to build new capabilities in dynamic resilience and cross-scale governance in order to secure the benefits of global and local flows of clean, reliable and affordable energy for everyone, anytime, anywhere. The main section of the full report presents the three regional storylines to 2040, with supporting comparative analysis of energy sector implications; additional country focused insight; and illustrative, model-based quantification. There is also a section on 'how to use' the scenarios, describing how business leaders and policy makers can effectively use these scenarios to: (1) engage in leadership dialogues; (2) enable integrating policy pathfinding; (3) stress test and translate new energy visions into action; (4) redesign energy businesses