The Use of the Cynefin Framework in Emergency Management

Full text: The Cynefin framework was developed by David J. Snowden as a tool for decisionmaking that has been used for knowledge management as well as in other applications. The Cynefin framework has four domains or spaces named known, knowable, complex and the chaos domain. In the known domain a recognized relationship between cause and effect exists and the usual procedures work properly. In the knowable domain a cause and effect relationship also exists but it is incompletely known; if we have the resources and the required time to obtain information and additional knowledge it is possible to move to the known space. In the complex domain the cause and effect relationship only can be determined after the effect has happened and the experience obtained cannot be used to carry out new predictions. In the chaos domain a cause and effect relationship cannot be identified at all. In some application of the Cynefin framework, there are no more desirable domains; however, this is not true during the handling of a major crisis, like a nuclear emergency. In this situation, the preferred Cynefin domains to work in are: the known domain, where the well established actions can be safely applied, as those that are practiced during exercises; The knowable domain, in which appropriate predictions can be made by obtaining information, i.e. monitoring, and using conventional models; the complex domain where environments should be created to make patterns more evident and stabilize the more advantageous, allowing to manage the situation properly or to move it to the knowable space. Finally, in the chaotic domain it is important to act quickly, perhaps in an authoritarian way, to reduce the disorder, evaluating the result and creating several patterns to move the situation into the complex domain; obviously, this it is the less desirable domain, but in certain circumstances it is unavoidable. This paper explores the application of the Cynefin framework to the preparation and response in case of nuclear emergencies, considering specially the actions to be taken to avoid that the situation move toward some of the not wanted spaces or, at least, to slow down that movement. (authors)