On the prediction of building damage from ground motion

In the planning of a nuclear event it is essential to consider the effects of the expected ground motion on all exposed buildings and other structures. There are various steps and procedures in this process which generally increase in scope and refinement as the preparations advance. Initial, rough estimates, based upon rules-of-thumb and preliminary predictions of ground motion and structural response, may be adequate to show general feasibility of the project. Subsequent work is done in both the field and analysis phases, to estimate the total structure exposure, to isolate special hazards, and to make damage cost estimates. Finally, specific analyses are made of special buildings or structures to identify safety problems and to make recommendations for safety measures during the proposed event. Because the ground motion and the structural response both involve many random variables and therefore some uncertainties in prediction, the probabilistic aspects must be considered, both on a broad statistical basis and for specific safety considerations. Decisions must be made as to the acceptability or non-acceptability of the risks and any indicated procedures before and during the event to reduce or to eliminate the risks. The paper discusses various techniques involved in these operations including the Spectral Matrix Method of damage prediction, the Threshold Evaluation Scale for specific building analysis, and the inelastic and probabilistic aspects of the problem. (author)