Has the global expansion of energy markets truly improved energy security?

Highlights: • Panel Study on Oil, Gas, and Coal trade networks between 1991 and 2017. • Introducing a dynamic indicator of energy supply diversity. • Energy trades are less flexible than suggested by energy security metrics. • Countries should aim to make more flexible long-term contracts. Global energy trade volumes have sharply increased over the past three decades, creating a more connected energy system. Increasing demand for energy, the emergence of unconventional fossil fuels, increasing environmental awareness, and technological progress in energy technologies have led to significant changes in national energy mixes and in global trade patterns. For many countries, energy security is the dominant concern in the design of energy trade strategies and policies. In this paper, we present a systematic analysis of the factors shaping the global energy trade network, considering several energy security indicators as well as broader economic considerations. We observe that, in line with energy security considerations, most countries have indeed increased the number of their trade connections resulting in a more densely connected global energy network. However, a substantial part of countries' energy commodity imports often still comes only from a few incumbent suppliers. Due to this supplier concentration global energy security does not increase with the expansion of the energy markets. Increasing energy security will require fundamental changes in the organization of the energy market in terms of contracts and the flexibility of energy infrastructures.