Uncertainty in unprotected loss-of-heat-sink, loss-of-flow, and transient-overpower accidents

The sensitivities of various output parameters to selected input parameters in unprotected combined loss of heat-sink and loss-of-flow (ULOHS), loss-of-flow (ULOF), and transient-overpower (UTOP) accidents are explored in this report. This line of investigation was suggested by R. A. Wigeland. For an initial examination of potential sensitivities, the MATWS computer program has been compiled as part of a dynamic link library (DLL) so that uncertain input parameters can be sampled from their probability distributions using the GoldSim simulation software. The MATWS program combines the point-kinetics module from the SAS4A/SASSYS computer code with a simplified representation of the reactor heat removal system. Coupling with the GoldSim software by means of a DLL not only provides a convenient mechanism for sampling the stochastic input parameters but also allows the use of various tools that are available in GoldSim for analyzing the dependence of various MATWS outputs on these parameters. Should a decision be made to continue this investigation, the techniques used to couple MATWS and GoldSim could also be applied to couple the SAS4A/SASSYS computer code with GoldSim. The work described here illustrates the type of results that can be obtained from the stochastic analysis