The Potential Role of Nuclear Energy in National Climate Change Mitigation Strategies. Final Report of a Coordinated Research Project

In 2015, at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris, 196 Parties adopted a new legally binding treaty on climate change. This treaty — the Paris Agreement — seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared with pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. Nuclear energy could play a significant role in reaching these ambitious targets. The IAEA supports its Member States in better understanding the potential contribution of nuclear energy to climate change mitigation in various ways. It also provides information to broader audiences engaged in energy, environmental and climate policy making. The inclusion of nuclear power in low carbon energy supply is a complex matter, with political, economic, financial and social dimensions. A key aspect involves the economic and environmental performance of nuclear power considering a country's or region's broader energy system, including its geological energy resources, the amount and quality of renewable energy sources, the level of technological development, the availability of energy technologies and human capacity to operate them, among other factors. It is therefore sensible to conduct rigorous assessments of energy systems to better understand how climate change mitigation targets can be achieved and to what extent nuclear power can play a role. The IAEA has supported Member States to improve their energy planning for decades with a range of analytical tools, including computer models, and associated capacity building and training. The scope of these tools ranges from the compilation of energy statistics through energy demand projections and environmental impact assessments to complex energy system and macroeconomic modelling, specified according to the characteristics of the countries in which they are applied. Hundreds of experts are trained annually and a considerable pool of knowledge has accumulated as a result. Some of the IAEA's energy models can also be used to explore how nuclear energy could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Many Member States have indicated interest in such assessments and requested related support. In response, the IAEA has conducted many studies and released a range of publications about the role of nuclear energy in sustainable development and mitigating climate change. The IAEA also initiated a coordinated research project entitled Assessments of the Potential Role of Nuclear Energy in National Climate Change Mitigation Strategies to support research teams in interested Member States in conducting national studies on the prospects of nuclear energy in their energy systems. This publication presents the outcomes of this project. It provides information on the possible role of nuclear power in managing the climate change challenge, presents brief descriptions of the analytical tools applied in the national studies, provides concise summaries of the analysis and results produced by participating research teams and summarizes the general insights from across the national studies. This publication demonstrates an array of possibilities to undertake rigorous quantitative analyses and provide scientific advice to support policy making on links between nuclear energy and climate change. It is expected that the methods and results presented here will also encourage additional in depth studies on this topic.