Bayes' type probability assessment of safeguard equipment failure to respond

The conventional frequency-based assessment of failure to respond on the part of safeguard equipment is disputable when operating feedback is limited. An alternative would be to use the Bayes'inference. This may seem a priori more complex, since it involves integrating two densities of probability: the expert knowledge model and its probability confirmed by operating feedback. But providing appropriate conjugate distributions are selected, the problem is very simple. In this paper, these probability distribution options are discussed. The numerical application determining the diesel generator reliability parameters shows that the relative error between results obtained with the two methods rapidly increases when the number of observations decreases. On the contrary, the difference between estimators remains slight for a more substantial number of observations. (author). 2 figs., 1 tab., 3 refs., 1 annexe