Assessment of the potential for renewable energy production from French agricultural and forestry biomass up to 2050 - December 2023

Biomass is the oldest source of energy used by mankind, and one of the means of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. However, there are a number of constraints to its use: it has a low energy density, contributes to carbon storage and can have an impact on biodiversity; food, feed and the supply of materials have priority over its conversion into energy. In order to verify that the potential of agricultural and forest biomass can meet the needs identified for the National Low-Carbon Strategy 3 (SNBC 3) within the French Energy-Climate Strategy (SFEC), the mission makes several proposals, in order to better match supply with demand and given the major importance of national issues. It suggests improving knowledge of biomass supply and demand by setting up a national observatory with regional variations based on existing structures (sector-based and currently poorly coordinated). It proposes to build a simulation model for agricultural and forestry biomass production, internalizing agronomic and climatic conditions as well as geographical variability. In the absence of such a model, forecasts will remain imprecise and questionable, even if they are based on 'expert opinion'. It also proposes to improve the sharing, tracing and understanding of the data used by government agencies (too many errors, some of them significant, make it impossible to consider the results obtained as an unquestionable benchmark). The mission encourages the development of intermediate crops for energy purposes, the mobilization of forestry production through better, more rigorously supervised management, the maintenance or even slight increase in first-generation biofuel production, and the organization of afforestation of neglected land. Finally, we need to define the principles and a stable framework for prioritizing biomass uses, or 'merit order'