Trade Exposure of Energy Intensive Sectors

In this report we analysed the origin and destinations of trade flows between EU and non-EU countries with respect to eight industrial sectors. In addition we looked at the political pledges made during the Copenhagen negotiations last December. If we combine these two types of insights, we get an idea of the risk of carbon leakage due to EU climate policies. Our analysis shows that the EU often trades with countries that have climate policy in place. As these major trading partners of the EU can be expected to adopt similar stringent climate policies, CO2 might get a price in these markets as well and the risk of carbon leakage is reduced/absent. Trade intensities should be corrected for that. In case the EU will adopt a -30% emission reduction target, trade with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, Brazil and Mexico, need to be excluded from the calculation of trade intensities since those countries will adopt comparable climate policies. The average downward correction on trade intensities is 3%. If the EU eventually decides to adopt a -20% reduction scenario, trade flows with Russia, Canada and the USA should also be excluded. Those countries will then have policies of similar stringency. The average correction on trade intensities is then -8,5%. These findings have direct consequences on the allocation mechanism for some sectors, which will no longer receive free emission rights as they do not qualify as 'exposed' to international competition anymore. These sectors are listed in Table 4 (-30% scenario) and Table 5 (-20% scenario) on page 31. Yet, those sectors that are expected to face large cost increases (>5%) due to EU ETS, will still receive free allocation.