Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach

Highlights: • A probabilistic model is developed for estimating future US maize yields. • Yield loss risk is estimated for each county under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmings. • Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C substantially reduces future yield loss risk. • Distinct spatial patterns exist in the reduced risk at the county scale. This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise at the county scale, with highest probability in central and southeastern US, and lowest risk in western US and high production regions such as Iowa. Comparing the estimates under 1.5 °C global warming against that in 2.0 °C warming indicates that keeping global warming within 1.5 °C has great benefits for reducing future yield loss risk. Based on the ensemble mean of 97 climate model simulations, the risk of yield dropping below historical long-term mean is projected to decrease from 81% to 75% for the country as a whole. Such benefit is more evident when considering the risk of yield reduction by 10% and 20%, which is expected to decrease by 25% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that constraining global temperature rise to 1.5 °C has more benefits for reducing extreme yield reductions. Spatially, keeping global warming within 1.5 °C would benefit more in Missouri, South Dakota, Eastern Kansas, Southern Texas and southeastern part of the country than other regions, highlighting the spatially variable benefits of climate mitigation efforts. The analysis framework introduced in this study can also be easily extended to other regions and crops. The results of this study highlight the areas where maize yield is most vulnerable to temperature rise, and the spatially variable benefits for reducing yield loss risk by keeping global warming within 1.5 °C.