Projections of wastes to be generated

Projections of commercial fuel-cycle wastes are based on ERDA's ''low-growth'' forecast of February 1975 (revised) for nuclear power in the United States. In this case, the installed nuclear electric capacity rises from 70 GW in 1980 to 625 GW in the year 2000. Most of the power is generated by LWRs through the end of this century. Commercial liquid-metal fast breeder reactors are introduced in 1993 and account for about 10% of the total installed capacity by 2000. Plutonium recycle as fuel in LWRs begins in 1981 and is used in about 75% of LWRs by 1983. Fuel reprocessing is assumed to begin in 1978, with reprocessing capability increasing at such a rate that the spent-fuel backlog is worked off by 1988. Eleven principal fuel-cycle wastes are identified, and their rates of generation, shipment, and total accumulated inventories are calculated. These estimates assume the satisfactory completion of selected research and development programs that are under way on separation techniques, fixation processes, packaging and transportaton systems, and repositories for long-term storage and terminal isolation of the wastes. Results are presented on three bases: for 1 GW-yr of electricity generated; for a fuel fabrication and reprocessing throughput of 1500 metric tons per year; and for the total U.S. nuclear economy