Probabilistic integrity assessment of CANDU pressure tube for the consideration of flaw generation time

This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, it is necessary to perform the PFM analyses based on statistical consideration of flaw generation time. A depth and an aspect ratio of initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value, Delayed Hydride Cracking (DHC) velocity, and flaw generation time are assumed to be probabilistic variables. In all the analyses, degradation of fracture toughness due to neutron irradiation is considered. Also, the failure criteria considered are plastic collapse, unstable fracture and crack penetration. For the crack growth by DHC, the failure probability was evaluated in due consideration of flaw generation time