Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of APT blanket tubes

A probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) model that is specific to the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) helium tubes was developed. The model performs Monte Carlo analyses of potential failure modes caused by cyclic stresses generated by beam trips and depressurizations 60m normal operation, coupled with material aging due to irradiation. Dominant failure probabilities are due to crack through-growth while brittle fracture and ductile tearing have lower probability. Failure mechanisms of global plastic collapse and buckling or crack initiation mechanisms of fatigue or local fracture (upon loss of ductility) have negligible probability. For the population of (7,311) tubes in the APT blanket, the worst-case, annual probability of one tube failing is 3 percent. The probability of 2 or more failures is substantially lower; therefore, unavailability impacts are driven by single failure. The average annual loss of production (unavailability) is below about 0.2 percent. Helium outflow and water inflow rates were characterized for the failures.