Mechanical effects associated with surface loading of dry rock due to glaciation

Many scenarios of interest for a repository in the Pasco Basin begin with glaciation. Loading and unloading of joints and fractures due to the weight of ice sheets could affect the hydrologic properties of the host rock and surrounding units. Scoping calculations performed using two-dimensional numerical models with simplifying assumptions predict stress changes and uplift or subsidence caused by an advancing glacier. The magnitudes of surface uplift and subsidence predicted by the study agree well with previous independent predictions. Peak stress unloading near the repository horizon is a small fraction of the ambient stress. Any resultant aperture increase is likewise small. Based on the results of this study, mechanical loading caused by a glacier is expected to have a minimal effect on rock permeability, assuming that the excess compressive loads do not crush the rock. Possible rock failure due to shear or compression was not analyzed because the focus was on fracture aperture change due to change in normal stress across a joint or fracture