Illustration of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

A deep geologic repository for high level radioactive waste is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. As mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has promulgated public health and safety standards (i.e., 40 CFR Part 197) for the YM repository, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has promulgated licensing standards (i.e., 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc.) consistent with 40 CFR Part 197 that the DOE must establish are met in order for the YM repository to be licensed for operation. Important requirements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. relate to the determination of expected (i.e., mean) dose to a reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) and the incorporation of uncertainty into this determination. This presentation describes and illustrates how general and typically nonquantitive statements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. can be given a formal mathematical structure that facilitates both the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI and the appropriate separation in this calculation of aleatory uncertainty (i.e., randomness in the properties of future occurrences such as igneous and seismic events) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., lack of knowledge about quantities that are poorly known but assumed to have constant values in the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI)