Pooled Bayesian analysis of 28 studies on radon induced lung cancers

The influence of ionizing radiation of radon-222 and its daughters on the lung cancer incidence and mortality published in 28 papers was reanalyzed, for two ranges of low annual radiation dose of below 70 mSv per year (391 Bq m-3) and 150 mSv per year (838 Bq m-3). The seven popular models of dose-effect relationship were tested. The assumption-free Bayesian statistical methods were used for all curve fittings. Also the Model Selection algorithm was used to verify the relative probability of all seven models. The results of the analysis demonstrate that in this ranges of doses (below 70 and 150 mSv/ year) the published data do not show the presence of a risk of lung cancer induction. The most probable dose-effect relationship is constant one (risk ratio, RR=1). The statistical analysis shows that there is no basis for increase the risk of lung cancer in low dose area. The final conclusion results from the fact that the model assuming no dependence of the lung cancer induction on the radiation doses is at least 100 times more likely than six other models tested, including the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model