Risk analysis of Kalbar NPP projects using AHP and PMBOK model approaches

Indonesia plans to build a nuclear power plant in West Kalimantan. As a mega project, the construction of nuclear power plant has a high complexity and a great risk. Before a nuclear power plant is constructed, an important stage that must be carried out is to conduct a risk analysis of a nuclear power plant project. General project risk analysis consists of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. In this study quantitative risk analysis was carried out using a combination of the AHP model and the PMBOK model. The AHP model is used to determine the weight of each risk factor while the PMBOK model is used to determine the quantitative value. With this combination of models it will be able to determine the value of risk, time, scope of project and quality and on the other hand each risk factor can be traced to the total project risk. This risk analysis will greatly assist the project in mapping and compiling the mitigations needed to solve the problem. This research uses a case study of a NPP project with the EPC contract model. The results of the analysis show that financial problems make a large contribution to increasing the cost and time of project implementation, and decreasing ability when calculating improving project performance and project quality. Project scope becomes the most determining parameter due to risk while quality is the smallest parameter caused by risk. There is a risk of increasing the increase in project costs between 10 % -20 %, increasing the time (duration) of implementation of 5 % -10 %. (author)