Statistical theory for transition and long-time sustainment of improved confinement state

The occurrence of stochastic transition is investigated in the presence of triggers by turbulence noise and external events. The probability of observing the transition is calculated under the circumstance that the global controlling parameters change in time. This is another important prediction of statistical theory in addition to the long time average. This clarifies the feature of transient response of the system with stochastic transitions. The interpretation of the experimental threshold database is discussed. (author)