Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model

In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is established by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from I to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.