A systemic approach to the discussion of sustainability of nuclear energy

In 1998 the four Swiss Scientific Academies formed a working group to study sustainability of electricity production. Having been a member of this group since the beginning I witnessed the evolution of the discussion that led to a consensus. The group found the criteria of sustainability to be special for nuclear energy. While the resource uranium is not needed for any other purpose and thus the use of uranium is sustainable, the possible harm to future generations by nuclear reactors is difficult to evaluate: the potential damage can be large but the probability of its occurrence is very small. Therefore some people judge nuclear power as an environmentally friendly source of electricity production and an important contribution towards a sustainable energy future whereas others look at the potential damage and value nuclear power as not sustainable. The discussion of alternatives then reveals that it is definitely not sustainable to replace nuclear power by fossil fuels. This was a consensus reached by the members of the working group, which consists of the pro and anti nuclear camp. Sustainable energy production is a complex topic and not easy to tackle with our everyday methods. The group decided to solve the problem with a systemic approach to get to know the hidden and indirect effects of electricity production and usage. A system approach brings a new concept into the often blocked discussion of proponents and antinuclear people. In order to assure that a holistic evaluation results which reaches a high degree of consensus, several subgroups were formed representing divergent views on the issues analysed. These groups do not communicate their findings while work on their cross impact matrices (CIMs) is under way. The results are compared and discrepancies are discussed. Usually this shows that once the wording of the variables is corrected and their interpretations are shared by the parties involved, consensus concerning evaluations is achieved