Reducing Risk with Stakeholder Engaged Multi-Attribute Decision Modeling - 21278

Addressing risk for land remediation purposes associated with radiological waste deposits is a complex process that relies heavily on decision analysis. Complexities arise anywhere from the natural processes that drive contaminant transport over time, to the various belief systems of interested parties and governing bodies pertaining to future land use. When done successfully, the assessment both captures and gives value to the uncertainties associated with these complexities giving rise to thorough decision making in accordance with sound scientific and mathematical principles. Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tool (GiSdT), facilitates structured-decision making (SDM) in a way that promotes stakeholder engagement to reduce risk in complex and complicated decisions. Developed by Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune), GiSdT organizes, and processes information used to identify common goals and create, evaluate, and implement alternatives for complex environmental management and policy problems. The web-based tool provides statistical guidance coupled with dynamic statistical design, analysis, and interpretation capabilities with access to information knowledge bases and databases. Technical analysis capabilities are performed via R (a statistical programming language) and a Bayesian statistics software package. Other benefits of GiSdT are the expert system capabilities, document building, web-based presentation of products, and built-in quality assurance functionality. Neptune has engaged GiSdT in many applications ranging from simple statistical analysis of data sets to building much more complex, dynamic decision support systems. This paper examines three different GiSdT applications that demonstrate improved decision making with respect to land remediation. The first of which balances objectives focused on minimizing risk to human health and minimizing cost, while meeting regulatory guidelines for the Smoky Site at the Nevada Test Site. Remediation options include; no action, complete removal of contaminated soil, and various other transport control measures to mitigate radioactive exposures. The second project pertains to balancing a variety of regulatory, economic, social, and environmental objectives for the transuranic (TRU) and low-level waste (LLW) disposed in the 33 shafts within Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area 54 (TA-54) Area G. Both projects utilize an influence diagram to connect the options to the objective measures. Finally, the third GiSdT project utilizes a consequence table in the analysis of remediation options for the uranium ore reprocessing waste site Mill Tailings waste site Borst Rudnik Zirovski vrh in Slovenia. It is demonstrated that the flexibility of GiSdT, allows management of radioactive waste sites develop better conceptualizations of problem areas and risk while representing greater diversity with stakeholder engaged multi-attribute decision making specific to their sites. This brings defensibility, transparency, and traceability to remediation and waste management decisions in light of creating a cleaner, sustainable planet. (authors)