Analysis of the distribution and evolution of energy supply and demand centers of gravity in China

Using a center of gravity model and GIS software, we measured how China's energy production and consumption centers changed (positions, movements, distances, and rates) from 1997 to 2009, thereby revealing regional differences in the relationship between supply and demand. We found that the centers of gravity for raw coal consumption, crude oil production and consumption, and electricity production and consumption moved southwest during the study period, whereas those of raw coal and natural gas production moved northwest and that of natural gas consumption moved southeast. The distances moved were largest for natural gas, followed by crude oil, but the distances were small for raw coal and electricity, indicating that their supply and demand pattern changed little during the study period. The gaps between supply and demand for raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas were large, and tended to increase. The production centers were northwest of the consumption centers, indicating that China's energy production is concentrated in the northwest, whereas consumption was concentrated in the southeast. This pattern resulted from the distribution of China's energy resource reserves and its energy development strategies. Recommendations are provided to reduce the gap between supply and demand. - Highlights: ► We studied China's coal, oil, gas, and electricity distribution from 1997 to 2009. ► We quantified the evolution of the energy supply and demand centers of gravity. ► The study revealed spatial variations in the gap between energy supply and demand. ► The pattern was closely related to energy strategies and resource reserves. ► The results provide support for coordinating regional development.