Contribution of global GHG reduction pledges to bioenergy expansion

Highlights: • New bioenergy potential was implemented in TIAM-FR, with disaggregated resources. • In 2050, global biomass supply doubles in climate context compared to reference case. • About 40% of biomass is supplied to power production by 2050 and only 3% to transport. - Abstract: With growing concerns about climate change, countries are increasing efforts to reduce dependency on fossil energy sources, the major source of CO₂, by replacing them with cleaner energy sources including bioenergy. In this context, the global bioenergy market has grown massively during the last few decades. In addition, under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, 162 countries have already submitted their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to mitigate climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions pledges and action plans. Hence, the effect of these GHG restrictions on the bioenergy sector in the new expected global decarbonized energy system needs to be addressed. In this study, we estimate what role the international climate agreement could play in bioenergy sector expansion using the bottom-up energy system optimization model, TIAM-FR, a TIMES family model from ETSAP/IEA. As results, GHG restrictions promoted global bioenergy supply over the time horizon 2010–2050. In 2050, global biomass supply reaches 131–138 EJ under these climate scenarios, which is more than double biomass supply in the BAU scenario (60 EJ). In final bioenergy consumption, in 2050, only 3–5 EJ is consumed as biofuel in transport sector while 60 EJ of biomass is consumed for different uses in other sectors and more than 40% of total supplied biomass produces heat and electricity.