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[en] In recent years, annual electricity consumption in France amounted to around 470 TWh, 90% being decarbonized; at the same time, oil and natural gas consumption has been around 900 TWh and 450 TWh respectively. At present, electricity accounts for only a quarter of energy consumption. Energy savings alone will not be enough to move away from oil and natural gas: as equally anticipated for Germany and Great Britain, French reliance on electricity will have to increase significantly to replace oil and gas consumption. Various recent projections underestimate this growth. However, erroneous assumptions would affect the security of our energy supply and the daily life of the French people; the impacts on the cost of electricity and energy in general, and on the competitiveness of our economy would be considerable. In this position paper, the National Academy of Technologies of France (NATF) proposes a reasonable assessment of electricity demand in 2050. It points out that the European electricity system will be more vulnerable in coming years. It proposes some principles for the choice of economic data to be used in optimisation models. On the basis of these elements, it highlights some key points for managing change in the electricity system.
[fr]La consommation annuelle d'electricite en France a ete d'environ 470 TWh, decarbonee a plus de 90%; dans le meme temps, les consommations de petrole et de gaz naturel ont ete respectivement d'environ 900 TWh et 450 TWh. L'electricite ne represente aujourd'hui que le quart de la consommation d'energie. Les seules economies d'energie ne suffiront pas a sortir du petrole et du gaz naturel: comme le prevoient egalement l'Allemagne et la Grande-Bretagne, le recours a l'electricite en France devra croitre significativement pour se substituer aux consommations de petrole et de gaz. Diverses estimations recentes sous-estiment cette croissance. Or des anticipations erronees affecteraient la securite de notre approvisionnement energetique et la vie quotidienne des francais; les impacts sur le cout de l'electricite et des energies en general, et sur la competitivite de notre economie seraient majeurs. Dans cet avis, l'Academie des technologies propose une evaluation raisonnable de la demande d'electricite en 2050. Elle rappelle que le systeme electrique europeen sera plus fragile dans les prochaines annees. Elle propose quelques principes pour le choix des donnees economiques a retenir dans les optimisations. A partir de ces elements, elle souligne quelques points clefs de la conduite du changement du systeme electrique.
[en] While France and a growing number of countries around the world have been setting ambitious goals for reaching net-zero emissions, variable renewables like wind and solar energy are set to become the main building blocks in power systems worldwide as countries seek to decarbonise their economies. In a new joint analysis commissioned by the French Ministry for the Ecological Transition, the IEA (International Energy Agency) and RTE (Reseau de Transport d'Electricite) describe four essential areas that policy makers must address when wind and solar PV start to dominate electricity generation. The new report, Conditions and requirements for the technical feasibility of a power system with a high share of renewables in France towards 2050, outlines four groups of strict conditions that need to be met to integrate very high shares of renewables in a technically secure way in a large and meshed power system such as that of France. - Power system strength: Even if they still need to be proven at large scale, there is a general scientific consensus that technological solutions to maintain system strength - and therefore stability - without conventional generation exist in several cases. Specific difficulties are expected in the case of a system with a significant share of distributed solar PV. Further assessment of the impacts of distributed PV on the power distribution network and their implications for electricity security is needed. - System adequacy: This is the ability of a power system to cope with a given load at all times. It can be ensured even in a system mainly based on variable renewables as long as substantial sources of flexibility are available, including demand-response, large-scale storage, peak generation units and well-developed transmission networks and interconnections. The maturity, availability and cost of different flexibility mixes need to be evaluated in further analysis. - Operational reserves: The sizing of these reserves and the regulatory framework for balancing responsibilities and procurement would need to be substantially revised in a large power system as such that of France. Moreover, forecasting methods for variable renewables would need to be continually improved. - Grid development: Substantial efforts would be necessary beyond 2030 at both transmission and distribution levels. This requires strong proactive steps and public engagement in long-term planning in order to assess costs and work with citizens on social acceptance of new infrastructure. These efforts can nonetheless be partly integrated into the renewal of ageing network assets. The joint study marks an important step and is part of a larger work program aimed at developing and comparing scenarios for the long-term transformation of the electricity system to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. On 27 January 2021, RTE will open a public consultation assessing the framework and assumptions of these future scenarios, and will present the conclusions of this consultation in the Fall 2021.
[en] In accordance with French legislation, each year RTE drafts and publishes the 'Generation Adequacy Report' concerning the supply-demand balance of electricity. As a diagnostic reference for security of supply and of the electric network, the report is a key corporate exercise which is used to shed light on the medium to long term forecasts for security of supply, and therefore to develop national energy policies. This 2021 report presents: 1 - The next ten years: transformation of the energy mix to make it a major vector of global CO2 emissions abatement in France; 2 - A security of supply under watchful eye for the next 3 winters; 3 - 2024-2026: a pivotal deadline to materialize the decarbonization trend and to reinforce the security of supplies; 4 - A largely transformed electric system by 2030 allowing the start-up of a deep decarbonization of economy; 5 - A reinforced analysis of the security of supplies and of its reinforcement means.
[en] Whereas the French law related to energy transition for a green growth defined the objective of energy self-sufficiency in overseas territories by 2030 (i.e. a higher objective than for the metropolitan mainland), this report proposes a synthesis and comparative analysis of studies performed for 6 territories (Mayotte, Reunion, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Guyana by 2030, and Corsica by 2050). The main lessons learned from these studies are highlighted: possibility of a 100 pc renewable electricity mix, issue of energy management, high reduction of the importance of Diesel plants, significant share of varying wind and photovoltaic energies, decrease of the costs of the produced energy, electricity systems appeared to be steady. It discusses the context and conditions to reach the defined objectives. It presents the methodology and main hypotheses of the performed studies: elaboration of a data set, optimisation of trajectories of evolution of the electricity mix for 5 scenarios, ex-post economic analysis, modelling of the 5 scenarios for each territory. Results are globally presented (an expected decrease of global costs of electricity, an electricity system which could remain steady in front of significant incidents), and the limitations and perspectives of the study are discussed. Results are then presented for the six different territories (data in 2017 and 2030, renewable potentials, mix analysis for each scenario, economic analysis of scenarios, focus on a specific scenario).
[fr]La loi relative a la transition energetique pour la croissance verte (LTECV) a fixe comme objectif de parvenir a l'autonomie energetique dans les departements et regions d'outre-mer (DROM) a l'horizon 2030. La Collectivite Territoriale de Corse vise ce meme objectif pour 2050. L'ADEME a souhaite mener une etude pour evaluer les implications techniques, organisationnelles et economiques qu'aurait un mix electrique tres fo tement renouvelable dans ces territoires, pour la majorite insulaires (Mayotte, La Reunion, la Guadeloupe, la Martinique, la Guyane et la Corse). Le vecteur electrique, permettant une production locale basee sur les energies renouvelables, et adapte a de multiples usages en substitution a des energies fossiles importees, pourrait jouer un role preponderant pour atteindre cet objectif ambitieux d'autonomie energetique. A l'heure de la revision des Programmations Pluriannuelles de l'Energie des ZNI (PPE), cette etude se veut un outil d'aide pour les instances decisionnelles afin de nourrir la reflexion des parties prenantes et ouvrir le champ des possibles.
[en] This publication comments the content of a report issued by RTE and the IEA on the conditions for a technical feasibility of scenarios exhibiting a high penetration of renewable energies (ENR) in France. It indicates the four conditions to be met for a security of supply and for the integration of very high proportion of renewable energies into a large scale electricity system: stability of the electricity system, supply security, operational reserves, grid development. These four conditions and the associated technical feasibilities stated in the RTE-IAE report are then discussed. The authors finally discuss whether a 100 pc renewable energy objective is actually to be wished.
[en] The author comments and discusses the content of a study jointly performed by RTE and the IEA which addresses the conditions and prerequisites in terms of technical feasibility for an electric power system displaying a high proportion of renewable energies by 2050. These conditions are notably to preserve the stability of the power system despite the reduction of present steerable means, to develop new means of compensation of the huge variability of wind and photovoltaic sources, to completely resize security reserves in order to compensate production hazards, and to very strongly extend and strengthen transport and distribution networks in order to integrate additional flows of wind and photovoltaic electric power. Thus, after having discussed how to guarantee the system stability despite the reduction of steerable means, the author wanders whether a power system controlled by a necessarily complex artificial intelligence will be able to be absolutely cyber-secured. He outlines that validation on actual existing networks will probably be very difficult, and that the envisaged evolution globally bears risks of degradation of the security of supply of electric power. He finally states that any evolution of the power system can only be based on perfectly proven and resilient technologies.
[en] The French natural gas transmission network offers several entry and exit points (cross-border interconnections, LNG terminals, underground storage facilities), giving its users a choice between various supply combinations. Since 1 November 2018, the TRF has become the contractual framework for the French transmission network. It is built to a model that combines judicious investments in terms of infrastructure with contractual mechanisms which facilitate the management of the network's residual bottlenecks. A balanced supply management is required for the smooth running of the gas system in winter. The French operators, GRTgaz and Terega, must ensure the safety, efficiency and balance coverage of their networks at all times. In accordance with their obligations, the GRTgaz and Terega networks must have the necessary infrastructures to assure continuity in the transportation of gas, including in the event of a so-called P2 cold peak. In this context, in accordance with the Energy Code, art. L141-10, GRTgaz and Terega produce an annual Winter Outlook in order to verify compliance with these obligations and share their analysis of the coming winter with the market. The Winter Outlook is an exercise that makes it possible to assess the balance coverage for the French zone and downstream of the network bottlenecks for different gas demand scenarios and supply schemes. The Winter Outlook 2020-2021 is the 3. edition to be published that incorporates the provisions made as part of the creation of the TRF on 1 November 2018.
[en] After a discussion of the characterization of the security of supply (match between supply and demand on the long and medium terms), and having shown that the planned closure of steerable capacities in Europe should be better taken into account in order to guarantee the security of supply before 2030, this note comments the rate of development of intermittent renewable energies. It notices that these energies have a smaller guaranteed power, outlines that France, Germany and Belgium display the highest deficits of steerable power, that a high share of intermittent renewable energy within the energy mix increases the probability of grid destabilization, and increases the steering complexity, and that it is necessary to adapt grids and to develop demand flexibility. The authors outline that energy transition is poorly coordinated at the European level, which increases this weakening. Some recommendations are finally stated. An appendix presents the main hypotheses, uncertainties and observations related to this study.
[en] After a synthesis of the 4. quarter 2020 news and a focus on the implementation of the French solar energy development plan 'PlaceAuSoleil', this publication presents in a series of graphs the situation of photovoltaic energy development in France and in the whole world: evolution of the world's photovoltaic park (new and cumulated capacities), world comparison of production costs of new power generation capacities, photovoltaic power generation in France (photovoltaic share in the French power consumption, new connected capacities per surface size and for self-consumption, evolution of connected capacities rate, self-consumption market trend, residential market analysis and feed-in tariffs per surface size, pending projects, evolution of feed-in tariffs in continental France, extra public burdens induced by new connections with respect to surface size.
[en] Whereas the evolution of the electric power distribution public network can play a major role for energy transition as it is mentioned in the French low-carbon strategy, this guide aims at describing and discussing the various domains of collaboration with local communities. For each of five chosen aspects, contextual elements and levers of action are overviewed. These five aspects are: energy sobriety and efficiency, the promotion of the integration of renewable energies and of territorial projects, the deployment and evolution of energy networks (electric power, natural gas, heat and cold), forecast and optimization of the deployment of electrical mobility over the territory, and the struggle against energy poverty.