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[en] The climate goals of the federal government of Germany provide for a reduction of green-house gas emissions by 80-95% by the year 2050, compared to 1990. However, it is part of the current public discussion how these targets could be achieved. The potential measures to implement this project are varied and complex. In addition to a massive expansion of renewable energies, alternative drive technologies in the transport sector and energy efficiency measures in the industrial and building sector represent potential measures. However, the use of these technologies represents a disruptive change in the current energy system, whose repercussions on other areas of the system and the associated costs are difficult to estimate. For this reason, the aim of this work is to develop an energy system model that is capable of determining such technical correlations and resulting costs. In this way, it provides a basis for decision-making in the planning of cost-effective CO reduction strategies. The developed model is an optimization model for minimizing the total costs of the energy system comprising the CO emissions of all sectors. Based on newly developed methodical approaches, it is able to reduce the calculation time through time series aggregation, to increase the recorded level of detail and to consider cost uncertainties. Thus, this represents an approach on generating a consistent, cross-sectoral and technology-open energy scenario for Germany. The results show a complex transformation of the energy system in all sectors. Overall, it reveals that CO reduction in the industrial sector is associated with the highest specific abatement costs. The industrial sector is correspondingly responsible for 43-72% of the remaining CO emissions in 2050. These emissions remain, despite far-reaching energy efficiency measures in all sectors and a significant reduction in final energy consumption by up to 33-36%. This will lead to an increase of annual costs by 49 bn €/a (for 80% CO reduction) to 128 bn €/a (for 95% CO reduction). The cumulative total costs of the planned energy system transformation are 655-1,850 bn € until 2050. In the energy sector, the importance of expanding renewable energies is evident. In order to meet the climate goals, it is necessary to expand the installed capacity up to 296 GW in the 80% reduction scenario and up to 471 GW in the 95% reduction scenario. At the same time, an increase in net electricity consumption of up to 46-102% due to sector coupling is expected, compared to today. This is mainly due to PtX measures (Power-to-Heat, Power-to-H and E-Mobility) with a future net electricity consumption of up to 307-538 TWh/a. In order to guarantee security of supply with a 95% reduction in emissions, international imports of renewable energy carriers of up to 364 TWh/a must also be planned.
[en] Due to the expansion of consumption, fossil fuels are still the main source of energy in the world. As they are limited resources, investments in technological development directed to the energy sector are increasingly necessary, as they result in lower energy consumption and the consequent diversification of the national energy matrix. As they are limited resources, investments in technological development directed to the energy sector are increasingly necessary, as they result in lower energy consumption and the consequent diversification of the national energy matrix. The production of the main world energy source is fossilized, namely oil, and still has oligopolized production. That said, the work has the general objective of evaluating the relative composition of the Brazilian Energy Matrix, with regard to the presence of renewable and non-renewable sources for the period 1970-2018, and then, later, to elaborate models for forecasting internal energy production for the years 2019-2030, regarding that time lapse. Indeed, the instability of international oil prices will be considered. Specifically, the work investigated the relative evolution of renewable and non-renewable sources that make up the Brazilian Energy Matrix between the years 1970 and 2018, estimated suitable models in order to provide the forecast for each energy source and also evaluated the possible impacts of the prices of the barrel of oil on energy production restricted to the period from 1970 to 2018 and for the period from 2019 to 2030. The research data are originally extracted from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), so they are secondary data. In the formation of forecasts, the Box-Jenkins technique was chosen due to its consistent estimates generated by the mathematical and statistical framework in the construction of forecasts based on time series. The results obtained revealed that the relative composition of the Brazilian Energy Matrix went through significant changes during the studied period; the use of oil surpassed the use of firewood in the generation of energy in Brazil, becoming the main source of energy. In turn, the geometric growth rates proved the graphic analysis with oil having the highest rate, 2.8% and firewood with a negative rate of -4.6%. In Brazil, the renewable source that showed the most promise in the generation of energy was sugarcane with a TGC of 1.4% per year. The research also showed that, with the exception of firewood, all energy sources are sensitive in their production to changes in the price levels of a barrel of oil. Indeed, when prices are at intermediate and low levels, domestic production will tend to decline. Finally, the work allowed us to conclude that Brazil is still dependent on fossilized sources for its energy generation, even if it has potential in alternative sources such as sugar cane. (author)
[en] The thesis investigates the interaction between the electricity and heat markets with a special focus on heat pumps and heat grids. Against the background of the increasing expansion of renewable energies and the long-term climate targets, the question arises as to the effect that the coupling of the electricity and heating market has on the reduction of CO emissions, the energy system costs and the integration of renewable energies. To answer the research question, the linear optimization model Enertile is extended by two heat modules to account for heat pumps and heat grids. In contrast to other models, the implementation for this work simultaneously optimizes the expansion and deployment of renewable energy, CHP, and additional fossil-fuel power plant capacity, allowing for an analysis of the interactions between renewable energy expansion and the coupling of the electricity and heat markets. The model-based analysis carried out in this work shows the great importance of the interaction between the electricity and heat markets. In the context of a long-term decarbonization of the energy supply through an increased expansion of renewable energies, there are both opportunities and challenges for the interaction between the electricity and heating markets. The modeling of heat pumps shows significantly lower specific CO emissions for the entire period from 2020 onwards compared to heat generation in modern gas condensing boilers. The results also show that bivalent systems - the combined use of different heat generation technologies such as CHP, gas boilers and electric boilers - play an important role against the background of the restructuring of the electricity sector. In the long term, flexible heat supply by electric heating technologies represents a cost-effective and low-CO alternative to fossil heat generation, especially with high shares of renewable energies.
[de]Die Dissertationsschrift untersucht die Interaktion zwischen Strom- und Wärmemarkt mit einem besonderen Fokus auf Wärmepumpen und Wärmenetzen. Vor dem Hintergrund des steigenden Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien und der langfristigen Klimaziele stellt sich dabei die Frage der Wirkung, welche die Kopplung von Strom- und Wärmemarkt auf die Reduktion der CO-Emissionen, die Energiesystemkosten und die Integration der erneuerbaren Energien hat. Zur Beantwortung der Forschungsfrage wird das lineare Optimierungsmodell Enertile um zwei Wärmemodule zur Berücksichtigung von Wärmepumpen und Wärmenetzen erweitert. Im Unterschied zu anderen Modellen wird in der Implementierung für diese Arbeit der Ausbau und der Einsatz der erneuerbaren Energien, der KWK und der weiteren fossilen Kraftwerkskapazitäten gleichzeitig optimiert, wodurch eine Analyse der Wechselwirkungen zwischen dem Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien und der Kopplung von Strom- und Wärmemarkt möglich ist. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgenommene modellgestützte Analyse zeigt die große Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen Strom- und Wärmemarkt. Im Rahmen einer langfristigen Dekarbonisierung der Energieversorgung durch einen verstärkten Ausbau von erneuerbaren Energien ergeben sich sowohl Chancen als auch Herausforderungen für die Interaktion zwischen Strom- und Wärmemarkt. Die Modellierung der Wärmepumpen zeigt für den gesamten Zeitraum ab 2020 deutlich geringere spezifische CO-Emissionen gegenüber der Wärmeerzeugung in modernen Gasbrennwertkesseln. Die Ergebnisse zeigen auch, dass bivalente Systeme – die kombinierte Nutzung verschiedener Wärmeerzeugungstechnologien wie beispielsweise KWK, Gasheizkessel und Elektroheizkessel – vor dem Hintergrund der Umstrukturierung des Stromsektors eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Langfristig stellt die flexible Wärmebereitstellung durch elektrische Heizungstechnologien insbesondere bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien eine kostengünstige und CO-arme Alternative zur fossilen Wärmeerzeugung dar.
[en] Against the background of the long-term goals of the "Energiewende" and the German ratification of the Paris climate protection agreement, both the substitution of fossil fuels like natural gas by renewable energies as well as an increase in energy efficiency in the energy system are indispensable. This requires a radical transformation of the energy system, including the gas system, with associated risks for the actors involved. Political and gas industry decision makers therefore need information on the expected future demand for gas in the German energy mix to plan adequately the expansion of the capital-intensive gas transport infrastructure. These investments often have payback periods of up to several decades. In practice, expansion planning today is carried out regularly with special consideration of import dependency and supply security in network development plans of the responsible transmission system operators. The assumed development of gas demand in the 2016 network development plan, however, does not take into account the objectives of energy system transformation. This thesis develops a methodology to include the “Energiewende” objectives defined well beyond these ten years by 2050 in an assessment of the German gas transport system. Based on a detailed analysis of the current situation of the gas transport system, a scenario analysis is carried out in order to obtain plausible gas demand developments by 2050. From these, relevant grid utilization cases for the gas transport network are derived and investigated using the highly flexible GASOPT load flow model developed within the framework of this work. The suitability of GASOPT for the load flow calculation is demonstrated qualitatively by a back testing calculation of the peak load situation 2015 and quantitatively by a subsequent verification. The results of this thesis show that the gas transport network is only slightly utilized in the long term if the goals of the “Energiewende” are achieved due to a reduction in demand of more than 50 %. The compensation of several failing import routes, e.g. in Eastern Europe or even completely depleted natural gas storage facilities with simultaneous full load operation of gas-fired power plants is technically possible. The full substitution of fossil natural gas by methane produced climate-neutrally using "power-to-gas" is also manageable from the grid side. The long-term economic efficiency of grid sections with low capacity utilization and their rededication to alternative energy sources such as hydrogen can be examined in view of the significant reduction in gas transport demand. Furthermore, the analysis of consequences for the actors involved in the gas transport system shows that the business model of operators of large underground storage facilities in particular will be endangered, as import capacities exceed the required gas withdrawals in the future.
[en] This study presents an analysis of energy transition policy in Germany since 2011 in three central subsectors of the electricity sector - renewable energies, coal power, grid expansion. For this purpose, central policy decisions in the three subsectors are reconstructed and evaluated and an attempt is made to explain the policy development with the help of different explanatory approaches of state activity research within the framework of a comprehensive policy analysis. From a comparative perspective, influencing factors are identified that inhibit or favor the policy change aimed at by the energy transition decision.
[de]In der vorliegenden Studie wird eine Analyse der Energiewende-Politik in Deutschland seit 2011 in drei zentralen Teilbereichen des Stromsektors – Erneuerbare Energien, Kohleenergie, Netzausbau – vorgelegt. Dazu werden zentrale Politikentscheidungen in den drei Teilbereichen rekonstruiert und bewertet und der Versuch unternommen, die Policy-Entwicklung mit Hilfe unterschiedlicher Erklärungsansätze der Staatstätigkeitsforschung im Rahmen einer umfassenden Policy-Analyse zu erklären. Aus einer vergleichenden Perspektive werden dabei Einflussfaktoren ausfindig gemacht, die den mit der Energiewende-Entscheidung angestrebten Politikwandel hemmen oder begünstigen.
[en] In the course of the ongoing Energy Transition in Germany and Europe, the upcoming trend of decentralized generation leads to a new paradigm: Energy is more and more provided by a huge number of distributed energy resources instead of centralized generation. The share of cogeneration and Power-to-Heat solutions is growing. In combination with temporary electricity oversupply caused by a massive introduction of wind and photovoltaics this leads to a stronger sector coupling, especially regarding heat and power. Electric and thermal storage devices provide additional flexibility at central and decentral level that can be used to support the integration of renewables into the energy system. Whilst decentralization is the dominating trend in power and heat generation, on European level electricity market coupling is evolving leading to one single electricity market in Europe. These two contrary-appearing effects form the main playing field for this thesis: A Fundamental Electricity Market Model is developed, which allows for the simulation of a decentral oriented, but pan-European electricity market. With the developed model a co-simulation of centralized and decentralized generation is possible, considering the individual micro-economic objectives of the different market participants. A new decomposition approach derived from the concept of Lagrangian Relaxation forms the methodical core of the model. Beneath the coordination of the local load coverage within the different market areas, for the first time in parallel the international electricity exchanges are coordinated with Lagrangian Multipliers. This allows for an individual representation of thousands of generation units on central and decentral level, since the system overspanning optimization problem is decomposed into smaller sub-problems and a coordinator-problem. The model is validated against historic real data. A special attention is paid to the simulated electricity prices, the generation patterns of power plants and the results of the international electricity exchange. The correlation of realized and simulated electricity prices is about 90%. The ability of the model to simulate centralized generation in combination with a large amount of decentral energy resources on Prosumer level is demonstrated with scenario simulations for the year 2025. The simulations show that an investment in central Power-to-Heat facilities located at conventional CHP units to decrease (thermal) must-run generation dominates the decentral provision of flexibilities at Prosumer level regarding economic costs and the reduction of CO emissions.
[de]Der im Zuge der fortschreitenden Energiewende vorliegende Trend zu einer kleinteiligen Energieversorgung führt dazu, dass Energie immer weniger durch konventionelle Großkraftwerke, sondern vermehrt durch eine Vielzahl verteilter Energiewandlungseinheiten bereitgestellt wird. Ein zunehmender Einsatz von Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung und elektrischen Wärmeerzeugern führt in Kombination mit einem temporären Überangebot von Elektrizität aus Erneuerbaren Energien auf zentraler und dezentraler Ebene außerdem zu einer stärkeren Kopplung der Energieträger Strom und Wärme. Thermische und elektrische Speicher können in Kombination mit diesen Strom- und Wärmeerzeugern dazu genutzt werden, dem Strommarkt Flexibilität bereitzustellen. Während auf der Erzeugungsseite der Trend zur Kleinteiligkeit dominiert, schreitet auf europäischer Ebene die Ausweitung des internationalen Stromhandels kontinuierlich voran. Diese beiden gegensätzlich erscheinenden Trends bilden das zentrale Spannungsfeld dieser Arbeit. Es wird ein fundamentales Strommarktmodell entwickelt, welches die Simulation eines dezentral geprägten, jedoch europaweit verbundenen Strommarktes ermöglicht. Das entwickelte Modell ermöglicht die detaillierte Abbildung einer Vielzahl von zentralen und dezentralen Erzeugungsanlagen unter Berücksichtigung deren individueller mikroökonomischer Zielfunktionen im internationalen Strommarkt. Den methodischen Kern bildet ein neuartiges Dekompositionsverfahren in enger Anlehnung an die Lagrange Relaxation. Neben der Koordination der lokalen Lastdeckungsaufgabe innerhalb eines Marktgebietes wird erstmals auch die internationale Marktkopplung und mithin die Bestimmung der Austauschleistungen im internationalen Stromhandel in den iterativen Lagrange Koordinationsprozess integriert. Dies ermöglicht die individuelle Abbildung einer sehr großen Anzahl verschiedenster Energiewandlungseinheiten. Das entwickelte Modell wird anhand realer Daten validiert. Dabei liegt der Fokus der Bewertung auf den simulierten Strompreisen, dem Einspeiseverhalten der Kraftwerke und den Ergebnissen des internationalen Stromhandels. Die Korrelation zwischen realen Day-Ahead Spotpreisen und simulierten Strompreisen beträgt ca. 90%. Die Fähigkeit des Modells zur gleichzeitigen Abbildung einer großen Anzahl Prosumer und des zentralen Kraftwerksparks wird anhand von Szenariorechnungen für das Jahr 2025 demonstriert. Diese belegen, dass zentrale Power-to-Heat Lösungen zur Flexibilisierung des zentralen Kraftwerksparks (Reduzierung des sogenannten „Must-Run Sockels“) CO-Einsparungen zu wesentlich geringeren volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten ermöglichen als die dezentrale Bereitstellung von Flexibilitäten im Haushaltssektor.
[en] In regions of hot and dry climate, as in part of the north, northeast and central-west regions of Brazil, intense solar radiation in buildings increases the consumption of electrical energy with air conditioning, especially in buildings with low thermal resistance fences. Although in Brazil the energy matrix uses mainly renewable sources, the impacts of the implantation of the plants are not negligible. Bioclimatic architecture offers passive solutions for thermal comfort in buildings with low investment, low maintenance and good thermal efficiency. In this context, a bioclimatic residence was built, applying different compositions of walls to evaluate their thermal properties in a real scenario. This work evaluated the internal and external temperatures of each type of wall composition for one year. Other physical parameters, such as relative humidity, solar irradiance and paint reflectance were also measured and analyzed. Costs and savings were calculated in a brief feasibility study, pointing to thermal insulation with Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) as an affordable solution to the heat problem caused by sunlight and the consumption of electrical energy with air conditioning. (author)
[en] This work examines the electricity consumption of European households. For the first time, the effects of different instruments to influence electricity consumption on the goals of sustainable development are systematically investigated from the perspective of sustainable economics. The interdisciplinary work first examines the main factors influencing household electricity consumption on the basis of empirical macro data. In the second part, the author develops an evaluation system for political-legal instruments on the basis of a comprehensive Delphi survey, which also includes the effects on the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN. Using this evaluation approach, the paper then analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of the Ecodesign Directive, energy taxes and outreach consultations. The results of the work can thus provide an important starting point for the further development of the instruments. The evaluation system developed in the second part can be used to evaluate further instruments.
[de]Die Arbeit untersucht den Stromkonsum der europäischen Haushalte. Erstmalig werden die Auswirkungen von verschiedenen Instrumenten zur Beeinflussung des Stromkonsums auf die Ziele einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung systematisch aus der Perspektive der Nachhaltigen Ökonomie untersucht. Die interdisziplinäre Arbeit untersucht zunächst auf Basis empirischer Makrodaten die wesentlichen Einflussfaktoren auf den Stromkonsum der Haushalte. Im zweiten Teil entwickelt die Autorin auf Basis einer umfassenden Delphi-Befragung ein Bewertungssystem fur politisch-rechtliche Instrumente, das auch die Auswirkungen auf die Sustainable Development Goals der UN beinhaltet. Anhand dieses Bewertungsansatzes analysiert die Arbeit darauf die Stärken und Schwächen der Ökodesign-Richtlinie, Energiesteuern und aufsuchenden Beratungen. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit können damit einen wichtigen Ausgangspunkt zur Weiterentwicklung der Instrumente bieten. Das im zweiten Teil erarbeitete Bewertungssystem kann zur Evaluation weiterer Instrumente eingesetzt werden.
[en] The requirements for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of the power sector in Europe will result in a significant increase of generation from variable renewable energy sources (VRES). The presence of such technologies may pose significant challenges to the traditional operation and structure of the existing transmission grid. In this thesis, the integration of VRES into the future European power system is investigated until the year 2050. The introduced challenges translate to challenges of modeling the power system as well. Hence, the numerical modeling as well as the existing European framework of power system operation is described in detail, including the corresponding literature. In this thesis, a novel multi-level methodology for the generation dispatch that respects transmission constraints and includes flexible demand operation is introduced to model the pan-European power system. The final development of the model is completed via the determination of the system’s boundary conditions and technical parameters with respect to grid infrastructure, generation and demand in high spatio temporal resolution. The resulting model is verified for the year 2015 against historical conditions and forms the basis for the implementation of all future European scenarios. The future power system is analyzed for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 with respect to VRES integration and the impact of demand flexibility. It is found that the main grid congestion occurs between the North and Baltic Sea regions and Central Europe. This congestion becomes responsible for the majority of the resulting VRES curtailments, which are related to wind generation. The total amount of curtailments for the reference case is 88 TWh for Germany and 729 TWh for Europe, out of which it is concluded that the most suitable locations for exploiting the corresponding curtailment energy occurs in western Denmark and western Ireland. Regarding the impact of demand flexibility, it is found that the overall impact is relatively small (7.6% reduction in VRES curtailments) and therefore more flexibility options should be considered. Moreover, it is found that VRES integration is more sensitive to the shifting duration rather than to the available flexibility especially when seasonal flexibility is allowed, while also it is shown that shifting in space can also become very beneficial (27% reduction). However load shifting cannot constitute the only solution for their mitigation but further alternatives may be required as well. Examining all scenarios for 2050, it is found that the average amount of VRES curtailments becomes 592 TWh and that this value approximately doubles every 10 years from 2030 to 2050. Finally, it is shown that the level of the spatial resolution for the transmission grid representation plays a significant role with respect to VRES integration, where even models with 100-200 nodes can underestimate the total curtailments by half.
[en] With the increasing participation of renewable energy sources in our energy matrix and the great concern of organizations with energy management, the technical and financial opportunities to reduce energy costs, to increase the competitiveness of organizations, and to promote actions that reduce environmental impacts in the processes involved are increasingly evident. Several aspects are relevant. Among them, it is possible to identify in Brazil a low adherence to the use of new technologies mainly focused on improving energy efficiency, great potential for the expansion of renewable energies, and a notorious technical and financial feasibility for projects developed in the areas of energy and energy efficiency. In this work the current study of the main energy sources is presented, emphasizing the renewable ones and the energy efficiency actions, showing a general scenario of the actions developed by public and private initiatives, along with the other actors involved, whose objective is to disseminate the opportunities that permeate the energy and energy efficiency market in Brazil, as well as to guarantee the benefits that the adoption of these new technologies can bring to the economy, society, environment and development of the country. The results determined in the study, highlight Brazil as one of the cleanest energy matrix in the world, demonstrating an expressive participation of renewable energies, with approximately 43%, but reveal timid initiatives aimed at energy efficiency actions and to improving its performance. (author)