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[en] This article outlines that Germany must redouble its efforts to reach its objectives of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions defined for 2030, and that renewable energies are already representing more than the half of the German energy mix whereas its energy transition is controversial. Thus, the author evokes the huge investments made since 2000, the ambitious program of development of renewable energies, that this development is said to be too slow regarding some aspects. While evoking the example of a village which is considered as a model as far as successful energy transition is concerned, current developments are mentioned regarding infrastructures, notably the important issue of reinforcement of the high voltage network, and ecological and economic issues. The last part more particularly addresses the strategic importance of a local photovoltaic panel production, and actions and supports to phase out coal mining and use
[en] A CIRED team has just published a study on how to meet the demand for electricity without nuclear or fossil fuels. She concluded that it would not cost more than it does today. With the hypotheses of the cost of wind power and photovoltaics that it has retained, it is also possible to calculate that it would cost less than with new nuclear reactors. In addition to the costs of wind and photovoltaic production, the CIRED study retains a set of explicit or implicit assumptions which deserve to be commented on the level of electric power consumption, the stability of the network, the efficiency of the storage means, the reception by the population of tens of thousands of wind turbines and thousands of square kilometers of photovoltaics, the consumption of critical materials and dependence on foreign countries, the loss of a nuclear know-how that the world will need, the vulnerability of an electrical network based on digital communications.
[fr]Une equipe du CIRED vient de publier une etude sur la facon de repondre a la demande d'electricite sans nucleaire ni energie fossile. Elle conclut que cela ne couterait pas plus cher qu'aujourd'hui. Avec les hypotheses de cout de l'eolien et de photovoltaique qu'elle a retenues on peut aussi calculer que cela couterait moins cher qu'avec des nouveaux reacteurs nucleaires. Outre les couts de production eolien et photovoltaique, l'etude du CIRED retient un ensemble d'hypotheses explicites ou implicites qui meritent d'etre commentees sur le niveau de consommation d'electricite, la stabilite du reseau, l'efficacite des moyens de stockage, l'accueil par la population de dizaines de milliers d'eoliennes et de milliers de kilometres carre de photovoltaique, la consommation de materiaux critiques et la dependance a l'egard de l'etranger, la perte d'un savoir faire nucleaire dont le monde aura besoin, la vulnerabilite d'un reseau electrique reposant sur les communications numeriques. (auteur)
[en] Whereas the French law related to energy transition for a green growth defined the objective of energy self-sufficiency in overseas territories by 2030 (i.e. a higher objective than for the metropolitan mainland), this report proposes a synthesis and comparative analysis of studies performed for 6 territories (Mayotte, Reunion, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Guyana by 2030, and Corsica by 2050). The main lessons learned from these studies are highlighted: possibility of a 100 pc renewable electricity mix, issue of energy management, high reduction of the importance of Diesel plants, significant share of varying wind and photovoltaic energies, decrease of the costs of the produced energy, electricity systems appeared to be steady. It discusses the context and conditions to reach the defined objectives. It presents the methodology and main hypotheses of the performed studies: elaboration of a data set, optimisation of trajectories of evolution of the electricity mix for 5 scenarios, ex-post economic analysis, modelling of the 5 scenarios for each territory. Results are globally presented (an expected decrease of global costs of electricity, an electricity system which could remain steady in front of significant incidents), and the limitations and perspectives of the study are discussed. Results are then presented for the six different territories (data in 2017 and 2030, renewable potentials, mix analysis for each scenario, economic analysis of scenarios, focus on a specific scenario).
[fr]La loi relative a la transition energetique pour la croissance verte (LTECV) a fixe comme objectif de parvenir a l'autonomie energetique dans les departements et regions d'outre-mer (DROM) a l'horizon 2030. La Collectivite Territoriale de Corse vise ce meme objectif pour 2050. L'ADEME a souhaite mener une etude pour evaluer les implications techniques, organisationnelles et economiques qu'aurait un mix electrique tres fo tement renouvelable dans ces territoires, pour la majorite insulaires (Mayotte, La Reunion, la Guadeloupe, la Martinique, la Guyane et la Corse). Le vecteur electrique, permettant une production locale basee sur les energies renouvelables, et adapte a de multiples usages en substitution a des energies fossiles importees, pourrait jouer un role preponderant pour atteindre cet objectif ambitieux d'autonomie energetique. A l'heure de la revision des Programmations Pluriannuelles de l'Energie des ZNI (PPE), cette etude se veut un outil d'aide pour les instances decisionnelles afin de nourrir la reflexion des parties prenantes et ouvrir le champ des possibles.
[en] This parliamentary report first recalls the objectives of the French energy policy as they are defined in a decree related to a preliminary dialogue for the PPE and the low-carbon strategy, in terms of mandatory energy savings, and regarding the carbon budget specific to the international transport and the French carbon print. Then, it discusses measures which have been already applied, are about to be applied or foreseen in favour of climate, and notably regarding the shutting down of coal-fired plants, to housing energy performance. The next parts present and comment legal and regulatory measures related to environmental assessment, to the struggle against the fraud on energy saving certificates, to the adaptation of the law to the case of overseas territories, to energy regulation, and to gas and electric power sales regulated prices.
[en] The author aims at proposing a credible scenario to face the five mega-waves which are now threatening to engulf us. In his introduction, the author discusses the issue of the future for mankind and for the planet: brief history of collapsology (from the Rome Club to the Anthropocene), the three main swells of opinion (Homo Rex, Deus and Collapsus), the paradigm of historical waves. Then, he addresses the five mega-waves. The first one is climate disruption as the mother of all breaks: climate history, exponential growth of atmospheric CO2, depletion of the carbon sink represented by oceans, the issue of permafrost as a greenhouse gas bomb, evolution of temperatures, sea level rise as a new flood, the challenge for mankind. The second mega-wave relates to energy with the collapse of fossil energies: renewable energies in China, fossil energies as a source for world economic growth, 1970 when oil and gas prevailed, 2020 as the rush for volumes and costs of solar energy, hydrogen, the solar constant and the programmed end of fossil energies by 2040, hydrogen as a vector of the solar constant, the peak oil and the chaos of the end of fossil fuels, the advent of a sustainable and democratic hydrogen civilisation. The third mega-wave relates to demography, from boom to crash: demographic inflection points, the explosion in 1970, the peak birth paradigm in 2020, the evolution of fertility (an educated and urban woman with no child). The fourth mega-wave relates to ecology, from disaster to re-wilding: history of food evolution, behavioural change with the peak meat, agriculture innovation and peak cropland, renewable water and river restoration, development of empty spaces when the population concentrates in metropolises, towards a planet re-wilding. The fifth and last mega-wave relates to hyper-metropolitanization and to the explosion of inequalities: demographic, economic and social consequences of a metropolitanization which is favoured by technology and by environmental and attractiveness issues, hyper-metropolitanization and globalization as vectors of inequality
[en] Whereas the former USSR and Asia are the most nuclear regions in the world (164 reactors), and as their nuclear policies has been put by the Fukushima accident into question again, this paper proposes an overview of the situation of nuclear electric power production in these countries. It appears that Russia and China have a very offensive policy of development of nuclear (sheets are proposed with indications and brief comments on resources and on the composition of the electricity mix, on economy, infrastructures and organisation, and on the nuclear policy for Russia and China). The cases of Armenia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan are described as countries wishing to initiate or to increase their nuclear power production (a sheet is proposed for Ukraine). Then, the paper addresses the cases of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan which reconsider their will to phase out nuclear (sheets for Japan and Korea). A brief synthesis is finally proposed.
[en] Reporting on the climate action of cities and regions in the context of the pandemic and the renewal of national contributions to the Paris Agreement. Each year, the Climate Chance Observatory proposes a summary of the progress made in terms of climate action and published by cities and regions around the world. Although the absence of consolidated and comparable data remains a challenge, this does not mean that there is no action or mobilisation. The analysis of the remarkable evolution of emissions at the local level, the monitoring of the development of the main international initiatives led by networks of local authorities, and publications of academic and specialised literature, make it possible to draw global trends. The formulation, implementation and monitoring-evaluation of local climate actions is a complex process that requires both the support of States and a proper consideration of the inhabitants' needs. This is why our monitoring is accompanied by analyses of multi-level governance and the localisation of Sustainable Development Goals. The reduction of GHG emissions by European cities is encouraging. However, in a context of mass adoption of carbon neutrality objectives, the monitoring of the impact of local climate policies remains scattered and poorly consolidated, even at the national level. The mobilisation of local governments and the structuring of their climate action is continuing. Although international initiatives show a certain dynamism in Latin America, Europe and North Africa, they do not account for the action of Asian cities and regions. Even in times of Covid-19, local governments remain places of innovation and experimentation for climate policies. At the city level, the densification of services is now seen as the remedy to the health and climate crises. Few of the renewed national contributions to the Paris Agreement mention governance mechanisms that integrate local and sub-national governments, except in Latin America. Their sectoral approach to tackling local emissions reduction masks the potential of spatial planning and local governance. Multi-level governance in G20 countries: our first case studies (Germany, Canada, France, Brazil) show that few cities are subject to climate obligations, whose action relies on the disparate support of federal and federated states. The lack of harmonisation of monitoring methods makes it difficult to integrate the potential of cities into national strategies. Agenda 2030: after a few years in the adoption phase, local governments are embracing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to cushion the socio-economic shocks of climate policies. Despite the lack of funding, driven by the dynamic exchanges between scientists and decision-makers, adaptation to climate change is accelerating within regions and cities.
[en] This publication comments the content of a report issued by RTE and the IEA on the conditions for a technical feasibility of scenarios exhibiting a high penetration of renewable energies (ENR) in France. It indicates the four conditions to be met for a security of supply and for the integration of very high proportion of renewable energies into a large scale electricity system: stability of the electricity system, supply security, operational reserves, grid development. These four conditions and the associated technical feasibilities stated in the RTE-IAE report are then discussed. The authors finally discuss whether a 100 pc renewable energy objective is actually to be wished.
[en] After having evoked the context (commitments related to the Paris Agreement, ecological transition, objective of carbon neutrality, reduction of the dependence of industry on fossil energies, use of decarbonized inputs to produce heat, and necessary development and deployment of new processes and also new technologies for CO2 capture, storage and valorization); this contribution proposes a critical discussion of the exploitation of hydrogen combustion, of its strengths and weaknesses, of its scientific and technological locks. Then, it discusses the exploitation of the combustion of hydrogen-natural gas mixtures (Hythane): production, strengths and weaknesses, benefits of such a combustion (due to energy properties of natural gas, to energy storage and transport, to CO2 emission reduction). It addresses the case of ammoniac combustion: NH3 production, use as fuel or energy vector, scientific and technological locks.
[en] In recent years, annual electricity consumption in France amounted to around 470 TWh, 90% being decarbonized; at the same time, oil and natural gas consumption has been around 900 TWh and 450 TWh respectively. At present, electricity accounts for only a quarter of energy consumption. Energy savings alone will not be enough to move away from oil and natural gas: as equally anticipated for Germany and Great Britain, French reliance on electricity will have to increase significantly to replace oil and gas consumption. Various recent projections underestimate this growth. However, erroneous assumptions would affect the security of our energy supply and the daily life of the French people; the impacts on the cost of electricity and energy in general, and on the competitiveness of our economy would be considerable. In this position paper, the National Academy of Technologies of France (NATF) proposes a reasonable assessment of electricity demand in 2050. It points out that the European electricity system will be more vulnerable in coming years. It proposes some principles for the choice of economic data to be used in optimisation models. On the basis of these elements, it highlights some key points for managing change in the electricity system.
[fr]La consommation annuelle d'electricite en France a ete d'environ 470 TWh, decarbonee a plus de 90%; dans le meme temps, les consommations de petrole et de gaz naturel ont ete respectivement d'environ 900 TWh et 450 TWh. L'electricite ne represente aujourd'hui que le quart de la consommation d'energie. Les seules economies d'energie ne suffiront pas a sortir du petrole et du gaz naturel: comme le prevoient egalement l'Allemagne et la Grande-Bretagne, le recours a l'electricite en France devra croitre significativement pour se substituer aux consommations de petrole et de gaz. Diverses estimations recentes sous-estiment cette croissance. Or des anticipations erronees affecteraient la securite de notre approvisionnement energetique et la vie quotidienne des francais; les impacts sur le cout de l'electricite et des energies en general, et sur la competitivite de notre economie seraient majeurs. Dans cet avis, l'Academie des technologies propose une evaluation raisonnable de la demande d'electricite en 2050. Elle rappelle que le systeme electrique europeen sera plus fragile dans les prochaines annees. Elle propose quelques principes pour le choix des donnees economiques a retenir dans les optimisations. A partir de ces elements, elle souligne quelques points clefs de la conduite du changement du systeme electrique.