[en] Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

[en] A simulation's disaggregated assessment of a transmission upgrade across different stakeholders and cost/benefit categories reveals how market-network dynamics can produce counterintuitive results

[en] The computerized system NARIS (Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analyses of the distribution of the health effects. The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

[en] This paper shows that to achieve grid level of reliability with wind solar and storage units alone is impossibly expensive so practical designs have always incorporated standby generation of some sort or other. This paper describes a simulation technique that enables a cost minimal, balanced hybrid system design. (author)

[en] The greenhouse effect is a hot topic. There are still major uncertainties about the effects on the climate of the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Politicians and socioeconomic scientists thus sometimes have the feeling that they are building on quicksand, and this hampers the advancement of an adequate policy. It is therefore necessary to map out the uncertainties, and to reduce them. A method is presented for doing this. 5 refs., 5 figs

[en] An optimization problem of minimizing the output load of a junction model with multiple input and output channels is solved by the replica method. Simulation results show that for the case of extensive connectivity, the replica solution obtained by assuming a vanishing solution space is satisfactory. However, for the case of intensive connectivity, the degeneracy of the solution space causes the simulation results to deviate from the replica solution of vanishing volume. (author). Letter-to-the-editor

[en] In a nuclear emergency, protective actions for the public should be taken in time. It is internationally proposed that Generic Intervention Levels (GILs) and generic action levels, determined based on cost-benefit analyses, be used as the decision criteria for protective actions. Operational Intervention Levels (OILs) are directly or easily measurable quantities corresponding to these generic levels. To assess the necessity of protective actions in a nuclear emergency, it is important that the environmental monitoring data required for applying and revising OILs should be promptly produced. It is discussed what and how to do for this task in the course of the emergency response. For an emergency environmental monitoring to be performed effectively, a through preparedness has to be made including maintenance of the organization and equipments, establishment of various procedure manuals, development of a supporting computer system and periodical training and exercises. It is pointed out that Korean legal provisions concerning GILs and OILs need to be amended or newly established

[en] Measures of attentional-resource effectiveness during monitoring and detection tasks in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been developed based on cost-benefit principle and validated with experimental studies. The underlying principle of the measures is that information sources should be selectively attended according to their informational importance. One of two measures is Fixation to Importance Ratio (FIR) which represents attentional-resources (eye fixations) spent on an information source compared to importance of the information source

[en] This paper addresses the selective maintenance optimization problem in a multi-component system, carrying out several missions with scheduled inter-mission breaks. To improve the probability of the system successfully completing the next mission, maintenance is performed on the system's components during the break. Each component is assigned a list of eligible maintenance actions ranging from minimal repair, through intermediate imperfect maintenance actions, to replacement. The quality of a maintenance action is assumed to be stochastic, reflecting the degree of expertise of the repairman and the tools used to perform the maintenance action. This quality is thus treated as a random variable with an identified probability distribution. The selective maintenance problem aims thus at finding a cost-optimal subset of maintenance actions, to be performed on the system during the limited duration of the break, which guarantees that the pre-set minimum probability of successfully completing the next mission is attained. The fundamental constructs and the relevant parameters of this nonlinear and stochastic optimization problem are developed and thoroughly discussed. It is then put into practice for a series–parallel system and the added value of solving it as a stochastic problem is demonstrated on some test cases. - Highlights: • A stochastic selective maintenance optimization problem is modeled and investigated. • Each component of the system may be maintained at different maintenance levels. • Variability of maintenance actions' effects are accounted for in the optimization process. • The selective maintenance problem is solved as a nonlinear stochastic optimization program. • Cost-effective maintenance solutions and accurate system's reliability are obtained.

[en] Research on social decision making theory and voting; public regulation and pricing; spatial planning of real estate markets; technological risks and crisis management; and private demands on public services is presented