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[en] We study the costs of electricity disruptions in Cyprus, which suffered severe power shortages in summer 2011 after an explosion that destroyed 60% of its power generating capacity. We employ both economic and engineering approaches to assess these costs. Among other calculations, we provide estimates of the value of lost load by economic sector and the hourly value of electricity by season and type of day. The results of two economic methods employed to assess welfare losses differ largely, indicating that the assessment of outage costs is associated with many uncertainties. Our calculations show that the emergency actions taken by national energy authorities in response to that accident, though not necessarily optimal, have generally been appropriate and in line with international best practices: the additional costs incurred due to these measures are lower than the economic losses avoided thanks to these actions. Preferential treatment of specific consumer types in the case of repeated power outages remains an open policy question. - Highlights: ► We evaluate the response of energy authorities to a sudden electricity crisis. ► We combine two top-down economic methods and a bottom-up engineering approach. ► We estimate the value of lost electricity by hour, day type and season. ► The response of energy authorities turned out to be effective. ► Costs of emergency actions were lower than the economic losses avoided.
[en] Water scarcity in North Cyprus (NC) began in the 1960s and is still tremendously increasing. Thus far no serious measurements have been taken to address this problem. Increased water demands led to extraction of water from unrestricted groundwater resources. Extreme water extractions caused the salinization of coastal aquifers up to brackish waters and the consequent depletion of interior aquifers. Such a situation requires precise control of water resources through an integrated water resources management (IWRM). Although the situation has reached an alarming state, no detailed research has been performed to establish the present demands of water in order to anticipate the future demands. Hence, this study, based on the IWRM approach, examines water budget of the country. (author)
[en] This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 deg. C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030.
[en] We aim to find out whether the exchange rate (against US dollar) or the interest rate (in local currency) is a better variable in predicting the capacity utilization rate of manufacturing industry (CUR) of Turkey after the 2008 global financial crisis. In that manner, we implement dynamic mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model to forecast monthly changes in CUR by using daily changes in the exchange rate and the interest rate separately. The results show that exchange rate has a better forecast performance suggesting that it is a stronger determinant in shaping the manufacturing industry
[en] Full tex: Azerbaijan flora is considered as one of the richest countries according to its genera and species abondance in all over the world. There are 4545 plant species in the Azerbaijan flora the native areal (origin) of many of which is just Azerbaijan. Majority of these plants is used in different fields of the national economy as useful plant. Nakhichivan Autonomous Republic is very rich within the botanical and geographical regions of Azerbaijan from its flora point of vew. Existance of vertical zonality, abondance of the soil with balanced microelements and etc. here resulted more amount of biologically active substances in the content of the plants that warrants to use them on the purpose of food, medicine and so on.Territory of the Nakhichivan AR differes from other areas of the region with its climate, soil and vegetation cover. That is why fruit, vegetable and water-melon quality and quantity index is high according to their taste, aroma and quality in the both environment - in the natural flora and in the sowing condition. Also while studying the collection dynamics of biologically active substances in their content quality and quantity index is usually high. Based on our 30-yeared experience we can say with certainty: study of bioecological features of basil (Ocimum basilicum L.), melissa (Melissa officinalis L.) and tarragon (Artemisia dracunculus L.) spread in the Nakhichivan AR area, their use by their biochemical research on the purpose of quality increase of the extracts, ether and fat oils, medicaments of biologically active substances, alcohol-free drinks and food obtained of them is necessary, actual and important for the present time in tinned meat and fish production, in cosmetics and tooth pastes technology working out. Basil, melissa and tarragon are plants (herbs) belonged to Azerbaijan areal; at the same time just these species have been taken as they differ from the same species and varieties grown in the other countries by their delicate aroma, taste and etc.
[en] The interaction among the energy unit prices, which are considered as the most effective factor on the realization of economic growth, and the distribution of this interaction throughout the manufacturing process have become popular subjects in research recently. Especially, the scarcity of energy resources and the problems encountered in their supply make it necessary to utilize alternative energy resources. Thus, the realization of production using different energy inputs simultaneously results in an interaction between the factors and the spillover effect. Thus, in the study, alternative vector autoregressive M-GARCH (VAR [-MA] -MGARH) models would be predicted based on the spillover effect between the conditional variance and alternative energy input prices.
[en] Selecting right strategies for technology transfer and R and D projects is vital for developing countries. A number of researchers have di sussed the problem and applied different techniques, such as Engineering Economics Analysis, Ranking Methods, Goal Programming, Integer Programming and Analytical Hierarchy Process, to this problem. They haven't discussed the problems of developing countries in their models from a strategic planning point of view. In this paper the model of Moore and Ghand-Foruch is used and developed to improve the strategic planning for technology acquisition in developing countries. The proposed model consists of two phases, in which the first phase deals with calculating the utility of different strategies, policies and programs by considering critical, quantitative and qualitative factors. The second phase optimizes the total utility of strategic planning by using Mixed Integer Linear Programming while considering the constraints on budget, manpower, time etc. At the end, the result of application of the model in an Iranian industry (Iran's Packaging Industries Company) is discussed
[en] At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in advance. Studies show -that not only frequency but also intensity of floods have been increased during recent years. Flood risk mitigation measures aim at modifying either the flood producing processes, or the flood hazards, or exposure and vulnerability to flooding. The analysis and response to flood risk needs to be integrated in a systemic manner: that is to say, in a manner that recognizes all the factors present in natural hazard systems and their interactions. A guideline for integrated flood risk management was established, in our country. It is covered land-use regulation; the integration of structural and non-structural measures; the integration of flood risk management plans with related plans; and recommendations on inter provincial cooperation on flood risk management. Based on the above-mentioned components, the National Flood Early Warning System in 1. R. of Iran (NFEWSI) has been designed and introduced to the government, by IRIMO (2001) and Climatological Research Institute (CRI, 2001) and it is on operation in the country from 2000. the NFEWSI consists from three main parts: 1. Observation, 2. Forecast and Warning Issue, 3. Response.(Author)