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[en] As an introduction to the subject I propose not to offer one or other specific method, but rather to discuss general questions such as the need for method, its objective and the relationship between the model, the methodology and the objective. Method is defined as a special form of procedure especially in any branch of mental activity, and methodology as an orderly arrangement of ideas. This is an English definition. I like it, as it is important to get the ideas right before embarking on a lengthy exercise on paper. It is possible to embark on an exercise of risk comparisons over selected ranges of energy and risk, and to a varying degree of precision or depth, i.e. first, second or third order of ranking. The study might start by listing the energy systems; the system phases; the estimation sequence; parties at risk; types of consequences; methods of estimating probability and consequences - the selected criteria and types of risk evaluation and produce a chart. Some exercises have taken a sample selection under the various headings
[en] Conclusions: MMRs and SMRs are ideal in size to electrify many rural/under-electrified communities. Energy security - Reduced dependence on supply chains; Energy sustainability – Reduced GHG emissions; - Energy growth – provision of reliable, high-quantity electricity.
[en] Shortages of rigs and personnel have encouraged discussion of designing incentive contracts in the drilling sector. However, for the drilling contracts, there are not a large variety of contract types in use. This article describes and analyses incentives for drilling contractors. These are directly represented by the compensation formats utilised in the present and in the consecutive drilling contracts. Indirectly, incentives are also provided by the evaluation criteria that oil companies use for awarding drilling assignments. Changes in contract format pose a number of relevant questions relating to resource management, and the article takes an in-depth look at some of these. Do evaluation criteria for awarding drilling assignments encourage the development of new technology and solutions? How will a stronger focus on drilling efficiency influence reservoir utilisation?
[en] Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems
[it]Viene presentato un confronto degli scenari energetici di lungo termine formulati dalle agenzie internazionali e dai maggiori analisti del settore con particolare riferimento alla evoluzione di specifici parametri quali sviluppo demografico, domanda e offerta di energia, risorse energetiche, sviluppo tecnologico, emissioni e relativi cambiamenti climatici. L'evoluzione e l'interdipendenza dei singoli aspetti vengono analizzate al fine di individuare la possibile evenienza di crisi o turbolenze dei mercati energetici indotte da carenza di risorse o da problemi ambientali
[en] This article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979-2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption. The univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31% of the sample at the 10% level or better. However, univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution. When we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research
[en] Energy literacy that can empower people to make thoughtful decisions and take responsible actions is more important as energy shortages have become pressing issues in the world. Energy literacy was measured among a sample of 2400 secondary students involved in a national energy education program in Taiwan. Response patterns related to student background and factors determining energy consumption behaviors were also studied. Energy literacy was high and positive, with greater impact as expected by grade (senior high school students outscored junior high school ones) and there were some effects due to gender and socioeconomic status. Students' performance on energy knowledge was acceptable (over 60% correct across grades) while a notable discrepancy between affect and behavior was identified indicating that there might not be a correspondence between what people say they would do and what they actually do. Energy saving behavior was more closely associated with the affect than other variables. Reasons for the findings and implications for energy education in the future are discussed
[en] The statement 2000 of WEC (World Energy Council) is an extremely important document, committed to overcoming the energy shortage where it is found, pointing out, from one hand, the importance of quality and safety in the energy supply, and, from the other hand, the necessity of minimizing the impact of energy development on the environment and mankind health
[it]La dichiarazione 2000 del WEC (World Energy Council) e' un documento di fondamentale importanza dedicato al superamento della poverta' di energia laddove essa si manifesta, sottolineando da una parte l'importanza della qualita' e della sicurezza delle forniture energetiche e dall'altra la necessita' di ridurre al minimo l'impatto sull'ambiente e sulla salute dell'uomo dello sviluppo energetico
[en] Risk is a poorly defined term and is commonly used in at least two quite different ways. I shall use risk in a qualitative way to mean the combination of the likelihood and consequences of possible events and I shall express likelihood as the probability or the probability per year of an event occurring and I shall define the consequences of the event as necessary. Risk assessment is then the process of assessing the numerical values of the probabilities and the consequences. It contains no element of social or economic judgment. However, the use of risk assessments must also take account of the way in which people react to real or imagined risks. It is unrealistic to expect that governments and regulatory bodies will take actions wholly on the quantitative assessment of risks they will also have to take account of people's reactions to and perceptions of risk
[en] Recent developments, and especially the new and critical interest of developing countries, have helped to mark the turning of a page in the Agency's history. If the present situation in the economics of nuclear power does not change there is a danger that developing countries will lag further and further behind the advanced countries in its use. Shortage of resources impose a brake on Agency efforts to promote benefits of nuclear techniques, especially by technical assistance. These were some of the points made by Dr. Sigvard Eklund, the Director General, when he presented the Agency's annual report to the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in July. (author)
[en] In an economy with many imperfect competitors (monopolistic competition), firms that pass through higher oil prices during a disruption will affect the demand for firms in other industries. Firms that charge higher prices for their final product will include the effect on their own final product in their private decisions but will exclude the effect on the final products of other firms. Although a pecuniary externality, these actions will reduce society's welfare, unlike the case of a perfectly competitive market. This situation creates a societal risk that is much wider than an externality in any single market. Policy interest shifts from one of punishing Persian Gulf oil producers to one of cushioning an industrialized economy from sudden disruptions caused by political and military conflicts. Although the value of reducing oil use depends upon a number of unknown parameters with wide distributions, a representative numerical example suggests that it may approach 5 US dollars per barrel. (Author)