Results 1 - 10 of 162
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[en] This paper revisits the Levy sections theorem. We extend the scope of the theorem to time series and apply it to historical daily returns of selected dollar exchange rates. The elevated kurtosis usually observed in such series is then explained by their volatility patterns. And the duration of exchange rate pegs explains the extra elevated kurtosis in the exchange rates of emerging markets. In the end, our extension of the theorem provides an approach that is simpler than the more common explicit modelling of fat tails and dependence. Our main purpose is to build up a technique based on the sections that allows one to artificially remove the fat tails and dependence present in a data set. By analysing data through the lenses of the Levy sections theorem one can find common patterns in otherwise very different data sets
[en] Since Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions cannot be fulfilled by financial data, the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process was introduced as a candidate model to describe time series of financial returns . It is an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process in which these assumptions are replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. We employ the OU and THOU processes to analyze daily foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. We confirm that the OU process does not fit the data, while in most cases the first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process. However, there are some exceptions in which the data do not follow linearity or time-homogeneity assumptions. - Highlights: • Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. • We revisit the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process. • We employ the THOU process to analyze foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. • The first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process
[en] This paper re-examines the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to crude oil prices onto the retail price of gasoline. The distinguishing features are: (i) use of updated and comparable data to carry out an international comparison of gasoline markets; (ii) two-stage modeling of the transmission mechanism, in order to assess possible asymmetries at either the refinery stage, the distribution stage or both; (iii) use of asymmetric error correction models to distinguish between short-run and long-run asymmetries; (iv) explicit, possibly asymmetric, role of the exchange rate; (v) bootstrapping of F-tests of asymmetries, in order to overcome the low-power problem of conventional testing procedures. In contrast to several previous findings, the results generally point to widespread differences in both adjustment speeds and short-run responses when input prices rise or fall. (Author)
[en] We investigate the long-run dynamics of a system of eight major exchange rates in the euro era using both integer and fractional cointegration methodologies. Contrary to the fragile evidence in the pre-euro era, robust evidence of linear cointegratedness is obtained in the foreign exchange market during the euro era. Upon closer examination, deviations from the cointegrating relationship exhibit nonstationary, long-memory dynamic behavior (Joseph effect). We find the long-memory evidence to be temporally stable in the most recent era. Finally, the foreign exchange system dynamics appears to be characterized by less persistence (smaller fractional exponent) in the euro era (as compared to pre-euro time periods), potentially indicating increased policy coordination by central banks in the recent period.
[en] This paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude-oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of OPEC member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members. The results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified OPEC determined price in the international crude market literature. In addition, the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market. (author)
[en] We demonstrate measurement of non-equilibrium backbone amide hydrogen–deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for solid proteins. The target of this study are the slowly exchanging residues in solid samples, which are associated with stable secondary-structural elements of proteins. These hydrogen exchange processes escape methods measuring equilibrium exchange rates of faster processes. The method was applied to a micro-crystalline preparation of the SH3 domain of chicken α-spectrin. Therefore, from a 100% back-exchanged micro-crystalline protein preparation, the supernatant buffer was exchanged by a partially deuterated buffer to reach a final protonation level of approximately 20% before packing the sample in a 1.3 mm rotor. Tracking of the HN peak intensities for 2 weeks reports on site-specific hydrogen bond strength and also likely reflects water accessibility in a qualitative manner. H/D exchange can be directly determined for hydrogen-bonded amides using 1H detection under fast magic angle spinning. This approach complements existing methods and provides the means to elucidate interesting site-specific characteristics for protein functionality in the solid state.
[en] In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)