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[en] This study examines the time series behaviour of oil production for OPEC member countries within a fractional integration modelling framework recognizing the potential for structural breaks and outliers. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 1973 to October 2008 for 13 OPEC member countries. The results indicate there is mean reverting persistence in oil production with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries examined. Thus, shocks affecting the structure of OPEC oil production will have persistent effects in the long run for all countries, and in some cases the effects are expected to be permanent. - Research Highlights: →Mean reverting persistence in oil production with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries examined. → Standard analysis based on cointegration techniques and involving oil production should be examined in the more general context of fractional cointegraton. → Analysis of outliers did not alter the main conclusions of the study.
[en] The special features of gas contracts for cogeneration projects were discussed. It was recommended that a gas power purchase contract should be entered early in a project development cycle to justify requests for new pipeline facilities. Issues regarding buyer's commitments, market prices, and volumes were also discussed. In the event of failure to deliver, the contract should include provisions which would make it possible to source gas elsewhere, terminate the contract or seek damages. This paper also discussed various pricing provisions in a gas commodity contract, security of supplies, gas transportation arrangements, regulatory considerations, outstanding issues, and IMO (independent market operator) requirements
[en] WTI fell below $70/bbl in early June on reports that Iran was considering a proposal from the EU and the UN to resolve the dispute over Tehran's plans to develop nuclear power. Sellers took further encouragement from the news that the Iraqi leader of al-Qaida, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had been killed. July WTI futures went down as far as $69.10/bbl. The euphoria proved to be short-lived. Within a short time, Iran announced that it was to resume the enrichment of uranium, whilst in Iraq, there was no sign whatever that the killing of one terrorist leader was going to bring about peace there. During the month of June, an estimated 1,500 people were killed in Baghdad alone. Attacks on road tankers caused the suspension of exports of heavy fuel oil, which is produced to excess by Iraq's refining industry. Lacking anywhere to store the surplus fuel oil, the government ordered what were described as 'large quantities' to be incinerated. The one piece of good news from Iraq was the reopening of the export pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan for the first time since January. Throughput was reported in late June at 325,000 bpd. Even here, though, the situation was not entirely without its troubles. The state marketing company, SOMO, received disappointing bids for the oil it was offering for sale at Ceyhan. (author)
[en] The natural gas industry provides its product in a safe and environmentally acceptable manner by dedicating considerable efforts and resources to safe and careful operations. The natural gas industry will continuously improve its performance by using appropriate management systems, state-of-the-art technology, and best practices, to make the contributions towards a 'sustainable development', which society has assigned to it. Because of a projected rising energy demand, but also because of its high energy and environmental efficiency, natural gas demand is predicted to increase significantly. (R.P.)
[en] LNG markets in Asia has faced turning points in 1990s. There is sluggish growth of Japanese demand, rapid demand growth of Korea and Taiwan, and increase of dependency on the Middle East. Will these situation continue after 2000? In Japan, energy demand will grow steadily, and development of nuclear power stations will not proceed without difficulty. Considering the emission of carbon dioxide, LNG demand will expand more than the Government outlook of 68 ∼ 60 mil. tons in 2010. IEEJ (Institute of Energy Economics Japan) forecasts that it will come to 58 mil. tons in 2010, including 1 ∼ 2 mil. tons of indigenous production. Korea secured two LNG projects newly, Ras Laffan (Qatar) and Oman. Considering the secured volume, LNG consumption will continue to expand even after 2000. But thinking of the lesser population of 21 mil. and warm climate of Taiwan, the extent of LNG demand expansion may not be so large. Big unknown factors exist in Asia: China and India. Their large population can give a great influence on LNG market in Asia. Several gas-fired power projects by IPP are already being planned. According to the Indian Government, as annual production capacity of natural gas is limited, more than 40 bil. m3 must be fulfilled by import in 2005. Some indicators of China, GDP, energy consumption and so on, are saying that Shanghai and some cities may have already prepared conditions to introduce LNG. They may begin to utilize LNG by taking surplus of existing LNG projects in the later half of 2000s. (LN)