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[en] This paper presents empirical evidence of fractional dynamics in interest rates for different maturities for Brazil. A variation of a newly developed test for long-range dependence, the V/S statistic, with a post-blackening bootstrap is employed. Results suggest that Brazilian interest rates possess strong long-range dependence in volatility, even when considering the structural break in 1999. These findings imply that the development of policy models that give rise to long-range dependence in interest rates' volatility could be very useful. The long-short-term interest rates spread has strong long-range dependence, which suggests that traditional tests of expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates may be misspecified.
[en] We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T)-Ω, with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of 'preshocks' before the interest-rate change at time T. This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the 'sign effect', in which 'bad news' has a larger impact than 'good news'. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a 'market under-reaction' that lasts at least one trading day.
[en] Oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1-2005:12. Norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns. The contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing European countries. (author)
[en] Supply chain management is monitoring of activities involved in supply chain, for integrating and coordinating between suppliers, manufacturing, inventory and transportation both within and among members. The ultimate aim of supply chains is to reduce costs and increase market coverage. Procuring and purchasing requested items in a timely manner are the two most important issues for supply chain stockholders. Group purchasing is one of the purchasing strategies in supply chains. It offers great potential by ordering large volumes to decrease expenses which can increase services to customers. A clustering optimization approach is employed to model group purchasing for a set of pharmacies in the field of healthcare. The proposed model determines a cooperation strategy based on factors such as distance between pharmacies and procurement expenditure in this network. Moreover, the proposed multi-objective group purchasing model is optimized using both goal programming and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm. To illustrate the application of the proposed model, designing a purchasing group organization for Chalus city pharmacies is investigated. Purchasing groups are established in the way that sum of pharmacies ordering quantity has been located in the second or the third level of discount rate. Thus, the results show that GPOs can take the advantage of this cooperation.
[en] A discrete, deterministic, economic model, based on the framework of non-Walrasian or disequilibrium economics, is presented. The main feature of this approach is the presence of non-clearing markets, where not all demands and supplies are satisfied and some agents may be rationed. The model is characterized by three agents (i.e., a representative firm, a representative consumer, and a central bank), three commodities (i.e., goods, labour and money, each homogeneous) and three markets for their exchange. The imbalance between demand and supply in each market determines the dynamics of price, nominal wage and nominal interest rate. The central bank provides the money supply according to an operating target interest rate that is fixed accordingly to Taylor's rule. The model has been studied by means of computer simulations. Results pointed out the presence of business cycles that can be controlled by proper policies of the central bank
[en] Highlights: • We propose an endogenous financial network model. • Endogenous networks include interbank networks, inter-firm networks and bank-firm networks. • We investigate contagion risk in endogenous financial networks. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate contagion risk in an endogenous financial network, which is characterized by credit relationships connecting downstream and upstream firms, interbank credit relationships and credit relationships connecting firms and banks. The findings suggest that: increasing the number of potential lenders randomly selected can lead to an increase in the number of bank bankruptcies, while the number of firm bankruptcies presents a trend of increase after the decrease; after the intensity of choice parameter rises beyond a threshold, the number of bankruptcies in three sectors (downstream firms, upstream firms and banks) shows a relatively large margin of increase, and keeps at a relatively high level; there exists different trends for bankruptcies in different sectors with the change of the parameter of credits’ interest rates.
[en] While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices, namely energy (crude oil) and capital (real interest rate) in an emerging market, Turkey for the period 2005:01-2009:08. Applying a relatively new technique, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run. This finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy. (author)
[en] Mass conservation equation of non-renewable resources is employed to study the resources remaining in the reservoir according to the extraction policy. The energy conservation equation is transformed into an energy-capital conservation equation. The Hotelling rule is shown to be a special case of the general energy-capital conservation equation when the mass flow rate of extracted resources is equal to unity. Mass and energy-capital conservation equations are then coupled and solved together. It is investigated the price evolution of extracted resources. The conclusion of the Hotelling rule for non-extracted resources, i.e. an exponential increase of the price of non-renewable resources at the rate of current interest, is then generalized. A new parameter, called 'Price Increase Factor', PIF, is introduced as the difference between the current interest rate of capital and the mass flow rate of extraction of non-renewable resources. The price of extracted resources can increase exponentially only if PIF is greater than zero or if the mass flow rate of extraction is lower than the current interest rate of capital. The price is constant if PIF is zero or if the mass flow rate of extraction is equal to the current interest rate. The price is decreasing with time if PIF is smaller than zero or if the mass flow rate of extraction is higher than the current interest rate. (author)
[en] One-parameter generalizations of the logarithmic and exponential functions have been obtained as well as algebraic operators to retrieve extensivity. Analytical expressions for the successive applications of the sum or product operators on several values of a variable are obtained here. Applications of the above formalism are considered
[en] When NUEXCO was organized in 1968, its founders conceived of a business based on uranium loans. The concept was relatively straightforward; those who found themselves with excess supplies of uranium would deposit those excesses in NUEXCO's open-quotes bank,close quotes and those who found themselves temporarily short of uranium could borrow from the bank. The borrower would pay interest based on the quantity of uranium borrowed and the duration of the loan, and the bank would collect the interest, deduct its service fee for arranging the loan, and pay the balance to those whose deposits were borrowed. In fact, the original plan was to call the firm Nuclear Bank Corporation, until it was discovered that using the word open-quotes Bankclose quotes in the name would subject the firm to various US banking regulations. Thus, Nuclear Bank Corporation became Nuclear Exchange Corporation, which was later shortened to NUEXCO. Neither the nuclear fuel market nor NUEXCO's business developed quite as its founders had anticipated. From almost the very beginning, the brokerage of uranium purchases and sales became a more significant activity for NUEXCO than arranging uranium loans. Nevertheless, loan transactions have played an important role in the international nuclear fuel market, requiring the development of special knowledge and commercial techniques