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[en] As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products. - Highlights: ► We simulate the future scenario of crude oil export and production using ACEGES. ► The simulated results are analyzed using the GAMLSS framework. ► The peak points of oil export and production will come early in this century. ► The OPCE Middle East will produce most of the world crude oil in the near future. ► These countries will continuously be the key players in the crude oil markets.
[en] In early 2003, American troops toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Few weeks later, President Bush introduced his vision to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict in what is known as the ''road map''. These interrelated developments confirm the connection between the two Middle-Eastern sub-systems-the Persian Gulf and the Levant and provide an opportunity to achieve a comprehensive peace. Regional economic cooperation is seen as the sine qua non of a durable peace. This study examines the potential for an energy partnership between the Persian Gulf hydrocarbon producers and Israel. (author)
[en] The World Bank estimates that privatization is either under way or being planned in at least 50 countries. Governments worldwide sold an estimated $25 billion worth of state assets to private investors in 1990 alone. It is estimated that a further $30 billion will have been generated in sales of state owned enterprises in 1991. And the oil and chemical sectors have been among the major targets of recent privatization initiatives. The Middle East has, however, been a late comer to the privatization arena. Globally, it accounts for less than 1% of total divested public enterprises and less than 3% of that in developing countries. Of the entire Middle East, only Egypt and Iran have developed a clear and coherent vision and a plan for privatization. (author)
[en] The complexity of the admixture dynamics that shaped American populations is unveiled by Ongaro et al., where genetic data for more than 12,000 individuals from the continents are investigated. This study evaluates the dramatic impact of events after the colonial era, revealing a spatial and temporal heterogeneity and mirroring historical records. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd The human genetic diversity of the Americas has been affected by several events of gene flow that have continued since the colonial era and the Atlantic slave trade. Moreover, multiple waves of migration followed by local admixture occurred in the last two centuries, the impact of which has been largely unexplored. Here, we compiled a genome-wide dataset of ∼12,000 individuals from twelve American countries and ∼6,000 individuals from worldwide populations and applied haplotype-based methods to investigate how historical movements from outside the New World affected (1) the genetic structure, (2) the admixture profile, (3) the demographic history, and (4) sex-biased gene-flow dynamics of the Americas. We revealed a high degree of complexity underlying the genetic contribution of European and African populations in North and South America, from both geographic and temporal perspectives, identifying previously unreported sources related to Italy, the Middle East, and to specific regions of Africa. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
[en] The Secretariat has received a copy of a communication dated 26 September 2008 from the Permanent Mission of India to the Permanent Mission of Kazakhstan regarding the Middle East and South Asia Area. As requested by the Resident Representative of India to the Agency, during the meeting of the Board of Governors on 6 October 2008, the communication is herewith circulated for information
[en] The paper deals with the prospects for stability, in the context both of Middle East politics and of oil price and security. It shows that, because political stability is viewed differently by the actors who would be required to create the constituent parts of a stable political system, the likelihood of such stability is not high. In the case of oil, the objectives of the so-called producer/consumer dialogue are also different for both sides and a stable system is more likely to persist (although always subject to political upsets) as a result of whatever price management naturally evolves rather than through the creation of newly constructed mechanisms. (author)
[en] More oil price records were set in July (see 'The Month in Brief'). This time, the cause was the bombing of Lebanon by the Israeli airforce, following the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed guerrillas from Hizbollah, operating from southern Lebanon. Brent and WTI futures both rose above $78 a barrel on fears that the fighting would spread to other Middle Eastern countries. Israeli aeroplanes bombed oil and electricity installations inside Lebanon, causing severe shortages. Rocket attacks by Hizbollah on the northern Israeli city of Haifa led to cuts in throughputs at a nearby refining and petrochemical complex. (author)
[en] This paper examines the pattern of convergence in per capita energy use in a sample of 109-country covering the period 1971–2013. In addition to the full sample of countries, existence of convergence is also examined in seven subsets of countries: OECD countries, OPEC countries, and also countries in America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, Europe, and the Middle East. In contrast to the previous studies which mainly used unit root or stationarity tests, we use the results from subsampling confidence intervals. Furthermore, instead of considering convergence to a particular country benchmark, we explore all the possible pair-wise convergences. The findings, based on 7962 pairs of countries, are more favorable to the existence of the convergence. Another finding of the paper is that the per capita energy use, despite being convergent, is highly persistent. - Highlights: • The paper studies the convergence of per capita energy consumption in 109-countries and seven subsets of countries. • We use subsampling confidence intervals for the sum of the AR(p) coefficients to examine the convergence. • Instead of considering convergence to a particular country benchmark, we explore all the possible pair-wise convergences. • The results based on 7962 pairs of countries, are more favorable to the existence of the convergence.
[en] This paper reviews the political situation in the Middle East and considers the current level of energy investment in the region. The factors affecting the stability of countries in the Middle East are examined, and the politics of western embargoes is explored. (author)