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[en] Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual agents can yield a U-shaped exploration cost path. Agent-based modeling appears to have significant potential for future development, but it is still unclear whether it will be the most useful in policy evaluation or more generalized systems research
[en] We describe the subsistence exploitation of an entire turtle fauna in Esmerald's Province, Ecuador. We collected first hand accounts and witnessed a number of capture techniques used by rural afroecuadorian and chachi inhabitants of the Cayapas Santiago River basin. The diversity of techniques indicated a practical knowledge of the ecology of the species. Chelydra acutirostris, Kinosternon leucostomum, Rhinoclemmys annulata, Melanosterna, and R. nasuta were captured and eaten. Poziando involved cleaning pools in a stream bed during the relatively dry season by removing live plants, organic detritus, and then seining with baskets; we observed R. melanosterna and K. leucostomum captured in this way. Pitfall traps baited with fruit were used to catch R. melanosterna during forays on land. Basket traps (Canasto tortuguero) with a wooden slat funnel across the opening are floated with balsa lashed to the sides. Banana or Xanthosoma leaf bait in the basket traps caught R. melanosterna, R. nasuta, and K. leucostomum. Marshy areas were probed for R. melanosterna and K. leucostomum. Direct capture by hand was also common. Turtles were relished as food items; all turtles captured were consumed, usually in soup or stew. Use of turtles for food in the region was pervasive, perhaps because fish and game populations were depleted.
[en] Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories. (author)
[en] The high oil price is caused by scarcity on the market for oil and uncertainty about the supply of oil in the near future. Depletion of reserves is by far not yet an issue
[nl]De hoge olieprijs wordt veroorzaakt door krapte op de oliemarkt en onzekerheid over de aanvoer in de nabije toekomst. Van uitputting van reserves is nog lang geen sprake
[en] This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up models of technology, designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path dependent technological transitions. The model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy models based on systems optimisation, such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations, as well as a much reduced computational load. Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost–supply curves, which give rise to different regional energy landscapes. The model is explored for a single global region using two simple scenarios, a baseline and a mitigation case where the price of carbon is gradually increased. While a constant price of carbon leads to a stagnant system, mitigation produces successive technology transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power sector. - Highlights: ► Global energy technology substitution model for global macroeconometric model E3MG. ► Features dynamic logistic technology transitions and induced technological change. ► Features global natural resource use and depletion in 20 world regions. ► Successive technology transitions and decarbonisation driven by the carbon price.
[en] Under the pressure of environmental degradation and resource depletion, Chinese companies are confronted with the need for transformation and upgrading promoted by technological innovation. However, environmental regulation can help to promote technological innovation. Based on the panel data of China’s 30 provincial levels during 2009–2016, firstly, this paper describes the connotation of environmental regulation and measurement intensity of the regulation. Then, the anti-driving effect of environmental regulation on enterprise technology innovation is analyzed. Finally, this paper analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of environmental regulation on enterprise technology innovation. The empirical results are as follows: (1) formal environmental regulation has effectively enhanced technological innovation of enterprises. However, informal environmental regulation generally can positively drive enterprise technology innovation. (2) The impact of environmental regulation on technological innovation of enterprises is spatially heterogeneous. On the one hand, the impact of formal environmental regulation on technological innovation has significant regional differences. The Eastern China generally supports the “Porter hypothesis,” while the Middle of China and Western China have the opposite performance. On the other hand, there is a threshold effect between environmental regulation and technological innovation. When the economic development level of the first lagging period is used as the threshold variable, with the gradual improvement of the economic development level, the technological innovation of the enterprise has the effect of first suppressing and promoting, and then verifying the threshold characteristics of environmental regulation on technology innovation.
[en] Fresh water comprises of 3% of the global waters and the rest is saline and not suitable for consumption without subjecting it to expensive treatment. Water is associated with development since civilization started in areas where water was easily accessible. However, much of the 3% is locked up in the ice caps. Water scarcity in any community is associated with abject poverty. The ecosystem functions of water and it's interactions with other environmental resources are least appreciated which has contributed to over exploitation, misuse, contamination, impairment and degradation of water bodies and their catchments. Over-exploitation of ground water in some coastal areas has in turn led to of seawater into freshwater aquifers and therefore making the water from aquifers unaccessible due to salinity
[en] This paper deals with the formation of a resource extraction tax for a resource that is finite yet relatively abundant in its availability. The basis for the formulation is the higher extraction cost imposed on future generations as a result of present extraction. The optimal size of the tax is determined by the trade-off between present losses and future gains. (author)
[en] Peak oil research and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) have contributed a great deal to improve people's recognition of peak oil. Although peak oil is becoming a part of public recognition, it is still hard to say whether peak oil discussion will develop into a theory such as 'peakoilism'. On one hand, there are still some difficult problems in peak oil research. On the other hand, the peakoilers have the potential for scientific research and have their allies: the climate change researchers and the new energy advocates. Oil is a limited, non-renewable resource, and an oil peak is inevitable. Peak oil theory is a kind of development theory rather than a crisis theory, which promotes reasonable utilization of the limited oil resources, promotes conservation, and encourages the development of renewable energy. (author)
[en] This paper analyzes the impact on exhaustible resource markets of setup costs, a sparsely analyzed category of nonconvex production technologies. This paper proves that, even under idealized circumstances for competition, a competitive equilibrium will fail to exist in the presence of setup costs, for any utility and cost functions such that a planner would exploit exhaustible resource pools sequentially