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[en] We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model
[en] The Proposed Action is the sale of all right, title and interest of the US in Naval Petroleum Reserve Number 1 (NPR-1) in accordance with the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1996 (Public Law 104-106). The Proposed Action is also DOE's Preferred Alternative. DOE has determined that the sale of NPR-1 as required by Public Law 104-106 constitutes a major Federal action which may have a significant impact upon the environment within the meaning of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and Kern County has determined that the sale could have a significant effect on the environment under the California Environmental Quality Act of 1970 (CEQA). Significant impacts may occur because private-sector operation of the NPR-1 oil field could result in accelerated levels of development and different types of activities than under continued government ownership. This SEIS/PEIR assesses the potential environmental impacts from the Proposed Action, a No Action Alternative under which NPR-1 would continue to be operated by DOE, and an Alternative to the Proposed Action under which some form of government control would be maintained. This document assesses the environmental impacts on: geology and soils; hazardous materials and waste management; air; water; biology; cultural and historical resources; land use; noise socioeconomics; risk assessment; energy conservation; and environmental justice
[en] Double bilateral contract auctions for electric energy purchase and sale occur in Brazil. These auctions present incomplete information and possess some subjectivity in relation to the future scenario of the Brazilian electric system, inserted in the agent's bids. In this work, a model using Bayes' rule and the game theory is proposed to aid the agent in its bid definition. Through the existing relations between the Conditional probabilities of Bayes' Rule, the model transforms beliefs into information. In this way, the absence of information is supplied and the problem is transformed into a game with complete information. The present study has no worries in terms of transmission constraints, since they are not usually considered in the bilateral contract auctions in Brazil. At the end, Nash equilibrium (NE) can be found through the expected payoff matrix of each agent. (author)
[en] The main object of this paper is the documentation and study of the main factors behind the spectacular diffusion of solar energy use for domestic hot water production in Greece. The time pattern of the diffusion of flat-plate solar collectors since its 'out of the blue' first appearance in 1974, shows that the diffusion rate grew exponentially at first, with the annual sales figure reaching 91,000 m2 by 1980. A rate slow down in the early 1980s was followed by a brief period of explosive growth, with the annual sales figure reaching its peak value of more than 185,000 m2 in mid-1980s. A rapid decline of the growth rate down to the present annual sales level followed. The installed solar collectors pattern has the characteristic form of an S-shape curve, representing the overall penetration of the flat-plate solar collector use for domestic hot water production in the Greek economy and society. This evolution has gone through an inflection point around 1987, i.e. at a time when about 1,000,000 m2 of collectors had already been installed. By the year 2000, about 2,070,000 m2 of collectors had been installed, with a tendency to level off by 2010, unless some the present conditions determining this phenomenon change. (author)
[en] Highlights: • We study co-movement between the green bond and financial markets. • The green bond market couples with corporate and treasury bond markets. • The green bond market weakly co-moves with stock and energy commodity markets. • Diversification benefits of green bonds are sizeable for stock and energy markets. • Green bonds are affected by price spillovers from fixed-income markets. - Abstract: We examine co-movement between the green bond and financial markets, finding that the green bond market couples with corporate and treasury bond markets and weakly co-moves with stock and energy commodity markets. We also find that green bonds have negligible diversification benefits for investors in corporate and treasury markets, whereas diversification benefits are sizeable for investors in stock and energy markets. We further confirm that green bonds are affected by substantial price spillovers from corporate and treasury fixed-income markets and that large price swings in stock and energy markets have a negligible impact on green bond prices.
[en] We propose a novel representation of commodity spot prices in which the cost-of-carry and the spot price volatility are both driven by an arbitrary number of risk factors, nesting many existing specifications. The model exhibits unspanned stochastic volatility, provides simple closed-form expressions of commodity futures, and yields analytic formulas of European options on futures. We estimate the model using oil futures and options data, and find that the pricing of traded contracts is accurate for a wide range of maturities and strike prices. The results suggest that at least three risk factors in the spot price volatility are needed to accurately fit the volatility surface of options on oil futures, highlighting the importance of using general multifactor models in pricing commodity contingent claims.
[en] Calgary-based Flexpipe Systems has developed and manufactured a small-diameter, non-metallic composite pipe which is as strong as steel but as corrosion resistant as plastic. The pipe is expected to find a niche market in Western Canada. The newly developed pipe is not restricted to operate at low psi. It currently operates at 750 psi, but a new pipe will be introduced in 2005 with a 1500 psi rating. The composite pipe consists of an inner core of high-density polyethylene (PE) pipe reinforced with a layer of fibreglass. A third layer of molten composite is also poured onto the first two layers and then rapidly cooled. The pipe can be coiled in spools for transportation. One truck can transport about 6 km of pipe. The major shareholder in Flexpipe is ARC Financial. Flexpipe has patents pending on its pipe and joining systems and is expected to sell 800 km of pipe in 2005, as demand for PE pipe is expected to grow faster than any other kind of pipe. 1 fig
[en] Highlights: • This paper date-stamps periods of oil-price explosivity relative to the general price and oil inventory levels in the US, respectively, for the period 1876 – 2014. • We make use of the multiple bubble detection strategy outlined by Phillips, Shi & Yu (2013). • We identify for each series multiple periods of oil price explosivity. • We contextualize the contemporaneous events surrounding the periods of explosivity identified by the estimation procedure used. - Abstract: This paper sets out to date-stamp periods of historic oil price explosivity using the Generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test procedure developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2013). The date-stamping procedure used in this paper is effective at identifying periodically collapsing bubbles; a feature found lacking with previous bubble detection methods. We set out to identify periods of oil price explosivity relative to the general price level and oil inventory supplies in the US since 1876 and 1920, respectively. The recursive identification algorithms used in this study identify multiple periods of price explosivity, and as such provides future researchers with a reference for studying the macroeconomic impact of historical periods of significant oil price build-ups.
[en] The City of Calgary, driven by the specter of Year 2000 issues as well as deregulation, decided to replace its 18-year old mainframe with state-of-the-art customer information system for all its utility customers. The system selected is the SCT Banner Customer Information System from Enlogix, headquartered in Toronto. This is the only software developed that was actually in use by other utilities, including Westcoast Energy, Toronto Hydro, Edison Source and PG and E in California. The conversion from an S-390 mainframe system relies on Banner's Oracle database technology. The main server, an IBM-RS 6000, will be stationed at an Enlogix data center, located in Calgary. Desktop workstations using Pentium II processors, with 350 MHz will be used. The major factors in favor of the Banner System were the SCT and Enlogix proven implementation methodologies. The implementation, expected to take about a year, will change about 100 major policies, but the utility is going forward with only nine modifications to match its processes to industry standards. The system has been 'Canadianized' to fulfill unique measurements, regulatory and tax requirements
[en] This article explains why: (a) consumers underinvest in new car fuel economy by opting to buy large vehicles; (b) macro shifts in vehicle classes have occurred in the last decades; and how (c) the effects of vehicle fuel economy and shifts in vehicle type influence the growth path of gasoline demand, which is the key to designing effective energy efficiency goals for transport. From 2008, 1.9 EXJ (Exajoules) of energy were consumed in Japan by private vehicles producing 124 MtCO2 emissions. For the period 1980 to 2008, we estimated: (1) gasoline demand for three vehicle sizes; (2) vehicle sales; (3) new car fuel economy changes (the ‘real’ technical change); and (4) vehicle stocks. Using a data sample for 1980–2008 we found that: (a) in the short term consumers buy fuel economy, that is sales of mini and small cars increase, but this is not sustained in the long term: and (b) consumers increasingly traded in their cars for larger cars. A further finding was that gasoline demand is projected to increase to 2.3 EXJ by 2035, even with a growing number of mini cars. The policy implication is clear: Japan’s policy to reduce oil dependency to 80% by 2030 is in peril as long as buyers prefer larger cars and drive ever longer distances.