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[en] The natural gas futures market is fundamental to the current natural gas market both as means of price discovery and for price hedging. Thus, the informational efficiency of the futures market is an important issue. This article re-examines the informational efficiency of the natural gas futures market. In this re-examination several cash price series are considered. It is found that the natural gas futures market is informationally efficient for only one of the cash markets. The characteristics of the current natural gas market that might explain the estimated results are also discussed. (author)
[en] In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)
[en] Great attention has been paid to the origin of observed wild price fluctuations of solar PV Si feedstock in both contract and spot markets during 2004–2009. This paper sheds light on this issue and tries to resolve it by addressing the following questions: what kind of structural shock is underlying the price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock? How can we quantify the magnitude, timing and relative importance of these shocks? What are their dynamic effects on the real price of PV Si feedstock? By carefully studying development conditions, the structural decomposition of the real price of PV Si feedstock is proposed: exchange rate shocks, production cost shocks, aggregate demand shocks and demand shocks specific to feedstock markets. With a Structural Vector Autoregression model, the paper quantifies and verifies the impact of structural shocks on PV Si feedstock real price changes. Based on national data, an analysis is further taken to confirm the essential role of demand shocks specific to feedstock markets in determining sharper price fluctuations during 2004–2009. The results of this study have important implications for national solar PV development, which can be better promoted and administrated if structural shocks in feedstock markets can be carefully evaluated and understood. - Highlights: ► The determination of solar PV Si feedstock price fluctuation is identified and quantified. ► Systematic structural shocks well explain 2004–2009 price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock. ► Production cost and aggregated demand shocks take longer effects on feedstock price. ► Exchange rate and feedstock specific demand shocks explain sharper price fluctuations. ► Development of national PV power should consider effects of structure shocks.
[en] Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)
[en] This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.
[en] This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)
[en] The purpose of this study is to examine whether crude oil spot and futures prices of the same and different grades are cointegrated using a residual-based cointegration test that allows for one structural break in the cointegrating vector and high-frequency data. We choose the US WTI and the UK Brent as the representative crudes for this analysis since these two crudes have well-established spot and futures markets. We find that spot and future prices of the same grade as well as spot and futures prices of different grades are cointegrated. We examine potential causes of structural change as revealed by the cointegration test in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets as well as discuss the implications of the results for hedge managers, investors and regulators. (author)
[en] Since their advent in 2001, virtual power plant (VPP) auctions have been implemented widely. In this paper, we describe the simultaneous ascending-clock auction format that has been used for virtually all VPP auctions to date, elaborating on other design choices that most VPP auctions have had in common as well as discussing a few aspects that have varied significantly among VPP auctions. We then evaluate the various objectives of regulators in requiring VPP auctions, concluding that the auctions have been effective devices for facilitating new entry into electricity markets and for developing wholesale power markets. (author)
[en] We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)